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بررسی رابطه ورود گردشگران خارجی و میزان وقوع جرم در ایران
|مجله برنامه ریزی و توسعه گردشگری|
|مقاله 4، دوره 5، شماره 17، تابستان و پاییز 1395، صفحه 65-81 اصل مقاله (655 K)|
|نوع مقاله: علمی-پژوهشی|
|مهیار حامی 1 ؛ مریم تقوی جلودار2|
|1دانش آموخته MBA، دانشگاه علوم و فنون مازندران|
|2دانشجوی دکترای روانشناسی، دانشگاه الزهرا|
|هدف از مقاله پیش رو بررسی رابطه بین ورود گردشگر خارجی و میزان وقوع جرایم مرتبط با گردشگری در ایران با استفاده از داده های سالیانه در فاصله سال های 1370 تا 1391 می باشد. برای رسیدن به اهداف پژوهش، تعداد ورود گردشگران خارجی در هر کیلومتر مربع برای نمایش توان جذب گردشگر و نیز تعداد کل پروندههای جرایم سالیانه در حوزه های جرایم رانندگی، سرقت و تجاوز به عنف در کشور به ازای هر 100 هزار نفر جمعیت جهت اندازه گیری نرخ جرایم مرتبط با گردشگری به کار گرفته شد و نتایج برآورد مدل پیشنهادی با استفاده از الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری نشان داد که طی دوره مشاهده، جذب گردشگران خارجی اثر مثبت و معناداری بر میزان وقوع جرایم مرتبط با گردشگری در ایران داشته است. |
|گردشگری؛ جرم؛ ایران؛ الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری|
|عنوان مقاله [English]|
|The Relationship between Foreign Tourists and Crime in Iran|
|Extended Abstract |
The tourism industry has become one of the most attractive investment targets and a significant source of revenue and foreign exchange in recent decades. Tourism is an activity in which a person or persons who travel to a location other than their normal place of residence and stay there for at least one night and one year in maximum and the purpose of their travel is to recreation and those who included in this definition are also called tourists. On the other hand crime is a phenomenon that has always been discussed by media and is easily understood by the public due to its importance and its impact on people's lives. In addition to the devastating social and cultural consequences, crimes also have a negative effect on economic activities. Crime and safety issues in tourist destinations, have a direct impact on the behavior and experiences of tourists and the tourism industry in each country. The lack of studies investigating the role of tourism in crime in Iran made us to study this relationship. So in this paper we are going to study the effect of foreign tourists arrival on crime related to tourism in Iran during 1991–2012.
Materials and Methods
To achieve the research objectives, we used the number of foreign tourists arrivals per square kilometer and the total number of annually judicial cases about driving offenses, theft and rape per hundred thousand individuals to measure the research variables. Then we applied Johansen Co-integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to estimate the proposed model.
Discussion and Results
The results of Phillips–Perron Unit Root Test indicated that both variables are stable in 1st difference in 5% level. Stationary of the variables at the same level could indicate the existence of a long-run relationship between them. Therefore in the next step we applied Johansen Co-integration Test using Eviews6 to examine the long-run relationship between the research variables. The results of Johansen Co-integration Test for variables showed that there is at least one long-run co-integration vector among the variables with the certainty of more than 99% which provided the basis of using estimation methods. At the next step Vector Error Correction Model used to estimate the proposed model. According to the results of Vector Error Correction Estimates for variables, coefficient of which called error correction coefficient, appeared in the model with the negative sign and it`s significance approved in 3% level. Negative sign of error correction coefficient indicates the tendency for long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Also the significance of and which indicate the impact of foreign tourists arrivals on crimes related to tourism approved in 6% and 4%level repectively.
The results on this study show that foreign tourist arrivals has a positively significant impact on crimes in Iran during the observation period so that 1% increase in number of foreign tourists arrivals has led to approximately 0.16% increase in crimes related to tourism in the next period and 0.03% increase in crimes in the next two period. These results suggest that foreign tourist arrivals has a significant contribution in promoting of crimes related to tourism in Iran`which can ban be caused by restructuring of the indigenous population in the tourism cites, poor planning and performances bye tourism services, the crime prone nature of tourism places and weakness of police forces in periods of influx of foreign tourists to the country. Given the results of this study and other similar studies, greater oversight of the agencies providing tourism services and strengthen regulatory forces and law enforcement provide the general suggestions of the study.
Keywords: Tourism, crime, Iran, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
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|کلیدواژه ها [English]|
|Tourism, crime, Iran, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)|
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