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توسعه مدلی برای ارزیابی ریسک پروژههای ساخت مبتنی بر تئوری مجموعه اعداد راف | ||
| پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 8، شماره 16، اسفند 1395، صفحه 39-62 اصل مقاله (304.71 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مدیریت و سازمان(اخلاق و مسئولیت اجتماعی، رهبری و تحول سازمانی، عملکرد سازمانی، ریسک، مدیریت منابع سازمانی، سطوح تحلیل سازمانی، بلوغ سازمانی، آسیب‌شناسی سازمانی، نظام اداری، . . . ) | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/jem.2017.1400 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علیرضا شهرکی* 1؛ فاطمه جمالی مقدم2 | ||
| 1عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان | ||
| 2دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 17 آذر 1394، تاریخ بازنگری: 08 شهریور 1395، تاریخ پذیرش: 08 دی 1395 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تصمیمگیری آگاهانه در صنعت ساخت، نقش به سزایی ایفا میکند. این صنعت با ریسکهای مختلفی روبرو است که نادیده گرفتن آنها میتواند باعث کاهش بازدهی و حتی شکست پروژهها گردد. از سوی دیگر، عدم قطعیت موجود در ریسکها و اطلاعات ناکافی در این زمینه، موفقیت پروژهها را با ابهام مواجه میسازد. تمرکز این تحقیق بر روی ارزیابی ریسک پروژههای ساخت و انتخاب کم ریسکترین پروژه میباشد. از طرف دیگر، ارزیابی ریسک خود شامل اظهارنظرهای شخصی و ابهاماتی میباشد. برای مقابله با این عدم قطعیت، رویکرد ارزیابی جدیدی بر پایه اعداد راف پیشنهاد شده است. روش پیشنهادی، شایستگی تئوری اعداد راف در رویارویی با ابهام و توانایی روش ویکور گروهی در مدلسازی و ارزیابی ریسک را با هم ترکیب میکند. همچنین روش پیشنهادی، در یک شرکت ساختمانی منتخب برای انتخاب کم ریسکترین پروژه، جهت نشان دادن پتانسیل روش و کاربردی بودن آن، بکار گرفته شده است.کلمات کلیدی: صنعت ساخت، شناسایی ریسک، ارزیابی ریسک، روش ویکور گروهی، تئوری اعداد راف | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| صنعت ساخت؛ شناسایی ریسک؛ ارزیابی ریسک؛ روش ویکور گروهی؛ تئوری اعداد راف | ||
| موضوعات | ||
| مدیریت کارآفرینی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Developing a Construction Projects Risk Assessment Model Based on Rough Set Theory | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Rational decision making plays an important role in construction industry. This industry faces a lot of risks that ignoring them, makes the projects less effective or even unsuccessful. Because of uncertainty in risks and inadequate information in this area, success of the projects dealing with ambiguity. This study mainly focuses on the risk evaluation of construction project risk and selecting the projects with minimum level of risk. Beside, evaluating project risk involves much subjectivity and vagueness. This study mainly focuses on the risk evaluation of construction project risk and selecting the projects with minimum level of risk. Beside, evaluating project risk involves much subjectivity and vagueness. To manipulate this uncertainty, a new approach on the basis of rough numbers proposed. To manipulate this uncertainty, a new approach on the basis of rough numbers proposed. This method integrated the merit of rough set theory in handling vagueness and the strength of group VIKOR process in modeling and assessing risk. Finally, an application in a construction company is provided to demonstrate the application and potential of the methodology. Finally, an application in a construction company is provided to demonstrate the application and potential of the methodology. Keywords: Construction industry, Risk management, Group VIKOR method, Rough Set Theory. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Construction industry, Risk management, Group VIKOR, method, Rough Set Theory | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 3,356 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 1,654 |
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