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اجرای قانون هدفمندسازی یارانه‌ها و تأثیر آن بر ساختار اقتصادی تولید | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| دوره 14، شماره 28، اسفند 1398، صفحه 291-317 اصل مقاله (1.37 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/iejm.2020.16053.1670 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| منصور مهینی زاده* 1؛ سعیده بهرامی فارسانی2 | ||
| 1استادیار گروه اقتصاد-دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری-دانشگاه یزد-یزد- ایران. | ||
| 2کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد-دانشگاه یزد-یزد-ایران. | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 29 فروردین 1398، تاریخ بازنگری: 19 آذر 1398، تاریخ پذیرش: 02 تیر 1399 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| اجرای قانون هدفمندسازی یارانه‌ها بعنوان حساس‌ترین برنامه اصلاحات اقتصادی در ایران طی چهار دهه گذشته، تأثیرات بسیار متفاوت و ناشناخته‌ای بر ابعاد مختلف اقتصادی داشته و دارد. در این پژوهش تلاش می‌شود تا آثار اجرای این قانون بر تحولات ساختار اقتصادی تولید در ایران مورد ارزیابی قرار گیرد. به همین منظور در این پژوهش از داده‌های سری‌زمانی در بازه زمانی 1375-1396و الگوهای اقتصادسنجی با رویکرد DVRM استفاده گردید. در این الگو تأثیر اجرای قانون هدفمندسازی یارانه‌ها بر ساختار اقتصادی تولید و سهم بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی از تولید ناخالص داخلی به تفکیک بخش‌های کشاورزی، صنعت و معدن، خدمات و نفت مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از آن است که اجرای این قانون در بازه زمانی مورد مطالعه تأثیر معنی‌داری بر ساختار اقتصادی تولید داشته است؛ بگونه‌ای که پس از اجرای این قانون، سهم بخش کشاورزی از تولید ناخالص داخلی بطور معنی‌داری کاهش و سهم بخش نفت افزایش یافته است. از طرفی بر پایه همین نتایج، اجرای این قانون تأثیر معنی‌داری بر سهم بخش صنعت و معدن و همچنین سهم بخش خدمات از تولید ناخالص داخلی نداشته است. بدیهی است، تحلیل آثار بلندمدت اجرای این قانون بر ساختار اقتصادی تولید، مستلزم گذشت زمان و دسترسی به داده‌های سری‌زمانی وسیع‌تری است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| ساختار اقتصادی تولید؛ هدفمندسازی یارانه‌ها؛ توسعه اقتصادی؛ الگوی اقتصادسنجی DVRM | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Enforcement Targeted Subsidies Law and Its Impact on the Economic Structure of Production | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mansour Mahinizadeh1؛ Saeideh Bahrami Farsani2 | ||
| 1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management & Accounting, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. | ||
| 2MA in Economics, Yazd University,Yazd, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The enforcement of targeted subsidies Law as the most sensitive economic reform program, has had very different and unknown effects on various economic dimensions and it continues. this research evaluate the effects of this law enforcement on the changes of the economic structure of production in Iran. To achieve this purpose in this research, used the time series data during the period of 1996-2017, and econometric models with DVRM approach. In this approach is examined the effects of the enforcement of targeted subsidies Law on the economic structure of production, and share of different sectors included agriculture, industry & mine, services and oil sectors in gross domestic product. The results is indicated that, before the enforcement of targeted subsidies Law (1996-2009), the average share of production of agriculture, industry & mine, services and oil sectors was about 12, 22, 52, and 14 percentage respectively. Basically on this results, after the enforcement of this law (2010-2017), the share of production from GDP in agriculture and industry & mine sectors has decreased to 5 and 0.2 percentage and for services and oil sectors has increased to 4.2 and 0.1 percentage respectively.The results of statistical tests rejected this changes and imply that the enforcement of this law, hasn’t had a significant effect on the economic structure of production. Obviously, the analysis of the long-term effects of the enforcement of this law on the economic structure of production requires to pass the time, and access to wider time series data. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| The Economic Structure of Production, Targeted Subsidies Law, Economic Development, Econometric DVRM Model | ||
| مراجع | ||
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