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Developing Tourism Section Strategies based on Scenario Planning Approach | ||
| برنامه ریزی و توسعه گردشگری | ||
| Volume 9, Issue 33, August 2020, Pages 191-207 PDF (366.35 K) | ||
| Document Type: Research Paper | ||
| DOI: 10.22080/jtpd.2020.16538.3059 | ||
| Authors | ||
| saeid saeidpour* 1; Azar Sefidi2; Ali Tizro3; Reza Ahmadi Kahnali4 | ||
| 1Raja HR senior expert | ||
| 2Hormozgan University | ||
| 3master | ||
| 4Master | ||
| Receive Date: 15 June 2019, Revise Date: 24 June 2020, Accept Date: 06 September 2020 | ||
| Abstract | ||
| This study investigates alternative futures of tourism industry of Hormozgan province by strategic management, future study, and scenario planning approaches. So, STEEP analysis and NVivo software were used to identify main drivers and Scenariowizard software were employed to develop scenarios. The study is of practical researches and uses combined method and it is based on future study science that implemented in explorative level. Literature review and semi-structured interviews followed for data gathering. The drivers were identified after data analyzing and narrowed down to 15 key factors by software analysis. ScenarioWizard was used to analyze cross-impact of key factors on each other. Finally, in order to strategy developing and scenario analyzing, 6 scenarios selected based on desirability out of 18 possible scenarios. The results indicate overall gradual development as the predominant future status of the province tourism industry in a time horizon of 10 years (2014-2024). The results also shows that during this period, tourism industry of Hormozgan province cannot realize perfect status in all identified derivers and the dominant stagnant status calls for revising the main strategies and planning frameworks. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Scenario planning approach; STEEP analysis; NVivo; ScenarioWizard; Tourism | ||
| References | ||
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