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روندپژوهی راهبرد جنگ روانی و تهدید نظامی اسراییل علیه برنامه هسته ای ایران (از افشاء برنامه تا پایان مذاکرات برجام) | ||
| مطالعات راهبردی سیاست بین الملل | ||
| دوره 5، شماره 10، آبان 1400، صفحه 99-121 اصل مقاله (488.65 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/jpir.2022.24151.1304 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| رضا سلیمانی* | ||
| گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران. | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 24 مرداد 1401، تاریخ بازنگری: 12 شهریور 1401، تاریخ پذیرش: 19 مهر 1401 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| برنامه هستهای ایران طی دو دهه به نگرانی اصلی امنیت ملی اسراییل تبدیل شده است. در مقابل، تلآویو راهبردی چندوجهی را به منظور توقف فعالیتهای هستهای کشورمان طراحی کرده که یکی از مهمترین اجزاء آن، جنگ روانی پیچیده از تابستان 2002(افشاء فعالیتها) تا جولای 2015(امضای توافقنامه برجام) بوده است. این مقاله بر آن است تا با استفاده از روش روندپژوهشی به فهم شیوه چندوجهی جنگ روانی در بازه مزبور بپردازد و توصیههایی را برای تقابل با آن ارائه دهد. پرسش اساسی آن است که جنگ روانی اسراییل علیه برنامه اتمی ایران از چه ویژگیهای خاصی برخوردار است؟ فرضیه اصلی آن است که جنگ روانی اسراییل علیه برنامه اتمی ایران با هدف متاثرسازی مقامات تهران و واشنگتن از طریق جدی جلوه دادن سناریوی حمله نظامی علیه تأسیسات اتمی ایران، طراحی شده است. اساسیترین درونمایه این دوره، دامنزدن به نگرانیها درباره خطرات پرونده هستهای ایران است؛ دومین بنمایه، تأکید بر سایر تهدیداتِ نظام سیاسی ایران خصوصا سیاست تهاجمی آن شامل مشارکت در فعالیتهای تروریستی و فعالیتهای دامنهدار در گسترش موشکهای دوربرد است؛ سومین موضوع، تهدید حمله به تأسیسات هستهای ایران در خلال سالهای 2010 تا 2012 است ؛و چهارمین مولفه از 2013 به بعد، جنگ روانی علیه مذاکرات هستهای میان ایران و قدرتهای جهان است که نهایتا زمینه خروج ترامپ از برجام را فراهم آورد. بخش دوم مقاله به ارزیابی چالشهای تلآویو در عملیاتی کردن راهبرد جنگ روانی خود علیه فعالیتهای هستهای ایران خصوصا تحت تاثیر تجربه مذاکرات هستهای و امضای برجام میپردازد و نهایتا برخی اقدامات مقتضی متقابل توصیه شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| جنگ روانی؛ برنامه هسته ای؛ تهدید اسراییل؛ مذاکرات هسته ای؛ حمله نظامی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Trend Analysis of Israel Psychological War Strategy and its military threat against Iran’s Nuclear Program(From disclosing the program to the end of JCPOA negotiations) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Reza Soliemani | ||
| Associate Professor in International Relations, Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali University, Hamedan, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Iran’s nuclear program has been a central security concern for Israel over the past two decades. In reaction to this threat, Israel has conducted a multifaceted drive to block it, one of which is planning and enforcement a complex psychological warfare to block it from summer 2002(disclosing the program) to July 2015(signing JCPOA). This article seeks to understand the complex psychological warfare in the past three decades by using the process research method and offers recommendations for confronting it. The basic question is, what are the special features of Israel's psychological war against Iran's nuclear program? The main hypothesis is that Israel's psychological war is designed to impress the authorities of Tehran and Washington by making the scenario of a military attack against Iran's nuclear facilities look serious. The first motif was provoking anxiety about threat of Iranian nuclear project; the second emphasized the other threats that the Iranian regime poses, chief among them its aggressive policy, which includes involvement in terrorism and extensive activity to develop long range missiles; the third was the threat of Israel military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities during 2010-2012; and the fourth from 2013 onwards, dealt with the negotiations between the world powers and Iran which had founded the ground for withdrawing Trump from JCPOA in 2018. Part two concentered on assessment of Israel challenges in psychological warfare against Iran’s Nuclear Program, especially under the experience of nuclear negotiations and after the signing JCPOA. In the end, some proper countermeasures would be offered. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| psychological warfare, nuclear program, Israel threat, nuclear negotiations, military invade | ||
| مراجع | ||
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