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محسنی, رضا, غریب پور, آزاد. (1401). پیری جمعیت ، تورم و صندوق های بازنشستگی. پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 17(35), 39-71. doi: 10.22080/iejm.2023.25626.1974
رضا محسنی; آزاد غریب پور. "پیری جمعیت ، تورم و صندوق های بازنشستگی". پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 17, 35, 1401, 39-71. doi: 10.22080/iejm.2023.25626.1974
محسنی, رضا, غریب پور, آزاد. (1401). 'پیری جمعیت ، تورم و صندوق های بازنشستگی', پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 17(35), pp. 39-71. doi: 10.22080/iejm.2023.25626.1974
محسنی, رضا, غریب پور, آزاد. پیری جمعیت ، تورم و صندوق های بازنشستگی. پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 1401; 17(35): 39-71. doi: 10.22080/iejm.2023.25626.1974

پیری جمعیت ، تورم و صندوق های بازنشستگی

پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
مقاله 2، دوره 17، شماره 35، آبان 1401، صفحه 39-71    اصل مقاله (1.22 M)
نوع مقاله: علمی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/iejm.2023.25626.1974
نویسندگان
رضا محسنی* 1؛ آزاد غریب پور2
1عضو هیات علمی دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
2دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی گرایش توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی
تاریخ دریافت: 27 خرداد 1402،  تاریخ بازنگری: 25 مرداد 1402،  تاریخ پذیرش: 18 شهریور 1402 
چکیده
روند رو به رشد سالمندی جمعیت ،کاهش نرخ باروری در ایران ، افزایش تصاعدی مستمری بگیران و کاهش کسور پردازان صندوق های بازنشستگی را با چالش های بسیاری مواجه کرده است ، دلایل فوق و مواردی دیگر باعث کسری بودجه ی شدید در صندوق های بازنشستگی شده ، این کسری در صندوق ها باعث نگرانی شدید برای اعضای صندوق ها که آرامش و امنیت دوران سالمندی آن ها در گرو کارکرد درست صندوق ها می باشد شده است و از آن جایی که پرداخت مستمری به سالمندان لاجرم است ، این کسری بایستی توسط دولت پرداخته شود و تبدیل به یکی از ابر چالش ها برای دولت شده است ،
با در نظر گرفتن بین دوره ای بودن صندوق های بازنشستگی به بررسی بدهی های صندوق های بازنشستگی از سال ۱۳۸۸ تا سال ۱۴۰۱ پرداخته و با استفاده از مدل تعمیم یافته دایموند عدد دقیق حقوق پرداختی ، در آمد ناشی از کسور و در انتها کسری این صندوق های بازنشستگی کشوری و لشکری که بزرگترین میزان کسری را دارند ، برای سال های ۱۴۰1 تا ۱۴۱۰ پیش بینی شده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
صندوق های بازنشستگی؛ پیری جمعیت؛ مدل دایموند؛ تورم
عنوان مقاله [English]
Aging inflatable populations and pension funds
نویسندگان [English]
Reza Mohseni1؛ Azad Gharib Pour2
1Faculty Member of Economics
2Iran university of Science and Technology
چکیده [English]
The growing trend of population aging, declining fertility rates in Iran, continuous increase in pension recipients, and decreasing number of pension contributors have posed numerous challenges for pension funds. These factors, along with other reasons, have resulted in severe budget deficits in pension funds. These deficits have caused significant concern among fund members, as their peace of mind and retirement security depend on the proper functioning of the funds. Since providing pensions is an essential obligation, the government should address these deficits. However, they have turned into major challenges for the government. Every year, with the devaluation of the national currency, the expenses of pension funds increase, while the number of contributors decreases, putting a greater burden on the country's current budget.
This paper examines the pension fund debts from 2009 to 2021, considering the cyclical nature of pension funds. Using the generalized extended Diamond model, the precise amount of pension payments, income from contributions, and ultimately the deficits of these funds have been predicted for National and military pension funds for the years 2022 to 2031
his paper examines the pension fund debts from 2009 to 2021, considering the cyclical nature of pension funds. Using the generalized extended Diamond model, the precise amount of pension payments, income from contributions, and ultimately the deficits of these funds have been predicted for National and military pension funds for the years 2022 to 2031
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Population aging, Diamond, Pension funds, swelling
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