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عرفانی, علیرضا, طالب بیدختی, آزاده. (1402). بررسی تأثیر تقاضای گردشگری بر توسعه مالی با تمرکز بر اثرات تعاملی آنها بر رشد تولید سرانه ایران. پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 12(47), 119-141. doi: 10.22080/jtpd.2023.25958.3820
علیرضا عرفانی; آزاده طالب بیدختی. "بررسی تأثیر تقاضای گردشگری بر توسعه مالی با تمرکز بر اثرات تعاملی آنها بر رشد تولید سرانه ایران". پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 12, 47, 1402, 119-141. doi: 10.22080/jtpd.2023.25958.3820
عرفانی, علیرضا, طالب بیدختی, آزاده. (1402). 'بررسی تأثیر تقاضای گردشگری بر توسعه مالی با تمرکز بر اثرات تعاملی آنها بر رشد تولید سرانه ایران', پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 12(47), pp. 119-141. doi: 10.22080/jtpd.2023.25958.3820
عرفانی, علیرضا, طالب بیدختی, آزاده. بررسی تأثیر تقاضای گردشگری بر توسعه مالی با تمرکز بر اثرات تعاملی آنها بر رشد تولید سرانه ایران. پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 1402; 12(47): 119-141. doi: 10.22080/jtpd.2023.25958.3820

بررسی تأثیر تقاضای گردشگری بر توسعه مالی با تمرکز بر اثرات تعاملی آنها بر رشد تولید سرانه ایران

برنامه ریزی و توسعه گردشگری
مقاله 5، دوره 12، شماره 47، دی 1402، صفحه 119-141    اصل مقاله (583.24 K)
نوع مقاله: علمی-پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/jtpd.2023.25958.3820
نویسندگان
علیرضا عرفانی* 1؛ آزاده طالب بیدختی2
1استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه سمنان
2گروه اقتصاد- دانشکده اقتصاد مدیریت و علوم اداری- دانشگاه سمنان
تاریخ دریافت: 11 شهریور 1402،  تاریخ بازنگری: 18 مهر 1402،  تاریخ پذیرش: 21 آبان 1402 
چکیده
زمینه و هدف: درک ارتباط بین توسعه مالی و فعالیت‌های گردشگری برای جذب سرمایه‌گذاری و ارتقای رشد پایدار حائز اهمیت است. مخارج گردشگری و تعداد گردشگران بین‌المللی به‌عنوان مؤلفه‌های تقاضای گردشگری، به‌طور مستقیم یا به‌واسطه‌ی تأثیری که بر سطح توسعه مالی دارند، می‌توانند بر رشد اقتصادی اثر‌گذار باشند.
روش‌شناسی: با استفاده از رویکرد خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL) برای داده‌های اقتصاد ایران طی دوره زمانی ۱۳۷۴ تا ۱۳۹۷، ارتباط تقاضای گردشگری با سطح توسعه مالی، آزمون می‌شود. سپس، نحوه تأثیر توسعه مالی بر ارتباط بین تقاضای گردشگری و رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، بررسی می‌شود.
یافته‌ها: نتایج بر ارتباط مثبت و معنادار بین سطح تقاضای گردشگری و توسعه مالی دلالت دارد؛ به‌ازای یک درصد رشد مخارج گردشگری، شاخص توسعه مالی، به میزان ۳۴۲۵/۰ درصد افزایش می‌‌یابد. رشد یک ‌درصدی ورود گردشگران بین‌المللی، به افزایش ۶۰۹/۰ درصدی شاخص توسعه مالی منجر می‌شود. اثر تعاملی توسعه مالی و مخارج گردشگری بر رشد تولید سرانه، ۴۰۸/۰ و به‌لحاظ آماری معنادار است. بر این‌اساس می‌توان استدلال کرد بهبود توسعه مالی به تقویت اثر مخارج گردشگری بر رشد تولید سرانه منجر می‌شود.
نتیجه‌گیری و پیشنهادات: نتایج سازگار با فرضیه رشد منجر به گردشگری بوده و حاکی از آن است که مقامات می‌توانند رشد اقتصادی را با تقویت بخش گردشگری و توسعه مالی، بهبود بخشند.
نوآوری و اصالت: توجه به اثر شاخص‌های تقاضای گردشگری بر سطح توسعه مالی، و نیز اثر تعاملی آنها بر رشد تولید سرانه، خلأ مطالعاتی موجود را پوشش می‌دهد و مزیت مطالعه حاضر محسوب می‌شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تقاضای گردشگری؛ توسعه مالی؛ رشد تولید سرانه؛ رویکرد خود‌رگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL)؛ اقتصاد ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Investigating the Impact of Tourism Demand on Financial Development, Focusing on Their Interactive Effects on the GDP Per Capita Growth in Iran
نویسندگان [English]
alireza erfani1؛ Azadeh Talebbeydokhti2
1professor of economics at semnan university
2Economics Department,- Faculty of Economics, Management & Administrative Sciences- Semnan University
چکیده [English]
Context and Purpose: Understanding the relationship between financial development and tourism activities is crucial to attracting investment and promoting sustainable growth. Tourism expenditures and international tourist arrivals as components of tourism demand affect economic growth directly or through their influence on financial development.
Design/methodology/approach: Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the data on Iran's economy from 1995 to 2018, we examined the relationship between tourism demand and the level of financial development. Then, we investigated the impact of financial development on the relationship between tourism demand and GDP per capita growth.
Findings: The results indicated a positive and significant relationship between tourism demand and financial development: For one percent growth of tourism expenditures, the financial development increases by 0.3425 percent. A one percent rise in the arrival of international tourists leads to a 0.609 percent increase in financial development. The interactive effect of financial development and tourism expenditures on the growth of per capita production is 0.408, which is statistically significant. Therefore, we can argue that enhancements in financial development strengthen the effect of tourism expenditure on GDP per capita growth.
Conclusion: The results are consistent with the tourism-led growth hypothesis and suggest authorities can improve economic growth by strengthening the tourism sector and financial development.
Originality/value: Paying attention to the impact of tourism demand indicators on financial development, besides their interactive effect on the growth of per capita production, covers the existing study gap and is considered the advantage of the present study.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Tourism Demand, Financial Development, GDP Per Capita Growth, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), Iranian Economy
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