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رابطه بین اجزاء پایه پولی و بخش حقیقی و پولی در اقتصاد ایران | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 18، شماره 40، اسفند 1402، صفحه 129-152 اصل مقاله (845.05 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/iejm.2024.26632.2035 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| زلیخا مرسلی ارزنق* 1؛ یزدان گودرزی فراهانی2؛ محسن مهرآرا3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری پردیس ارس دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 2استادیار گروه اقتصاد اسلامی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم | ||
| 3ایران-تهران- دانشگاه تهران- دانشکده اقتصاد-گروه اقتصاد نظری | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 03 بهمن 1402، تاریخ بازنگری: 11 اسفند 1402، تاریخ پذیرش: 15 اسفند 1402 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| طبق دیدگاه‌های اقتصادی پول می‌تواند اثرات اسمی و حقیقی بر متغیرهای اقتصادی داشته باشد. در این بین تغییرات پایه پولی در اقتصاد را می‌توان تابعی از تغییرات دارایی‌های مالی بانک مرکزی به شمار آورد. بانک مرکزی در کشورها وظیفه انتشار اسکناس را به عهده دارد. این بانک از ذخایر ارزی، ذخایر طلا، مطالبات از دولت و مطالبات از بانک‌ها به عنوان پشتوانه برای انتشار اسکناس استفاده می‌کند. بدهی بانک مرکزی نیز همان اسکناس و مسکوکات در دست مردم، ذخایر قانونی، اضافی و احتیاطی بانک‌های تجاری است. هدف اصلی این مقاله بررسی رابطه بین اجزاء پایه پولی و تولید و تورم در اقتصاد ایران بود. در این راستا با استفاده از مدل خودهمبسته با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL) در دوره‌های زمانی 1401-1368 ارتباط بین متغیرها برآورد گردید. نتایج به دست آمده مشاهده گردید که تاثیر متغیر بدهی بانک‌های تجاری به بانک مرکزی بر تولید و تورم به ترتیب برابر با 33/0 و 62/0 و تاثیر خالص بدهی بخش دولتی به بانک مرکزی بر تولید و تورم به ترتیب برابر با 42/0 و 57/0 بوده است. با توجه به نتایج بدست آمده و اهمیت توجه به سهم هر یک از اجزاء پایه پولی بر تورم و تولید در کشور، بانک مرکزی باید اهتمام بیشتری در تغییر سهم اجزاء پایه پولی داشته و در رشد بخش‌هایی که سهم بالایی در تورم کشور داشته منضبط‌تر عمل کند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| سیاست پولی؛ پایه پولی؛ تولید؛ تورم؛ مدل خودهمبسته با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL) | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Relationship between Monetary Base Components and Real and Nominal Sectors in Iran's Economy | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Zoleikha Morsali Arzanagh1؛ Yazdan Gudarzi Farahani2؛ Mohsen Mehrara3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری پردیس ارس دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 2Assistant Professor, Department of Islamic Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Qom University | ||
| 3Theoretical Economics,Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| According to economic views, money can have nominal and real effects on economic variables. Meanwhile, changes in the monetary base in the economy can be considered a function of the changes in the central bank's financial assets. Central banks in countries are responsible for issuing banknotes. This bank uses foreign exchange reserves, gold reserves, claims from the government and claims from banks as a basis for issuing banknotes. The debt of the central bank is also the bills and securities in the hands of the people, the legal, additional and precautionary reserves of commercial banks. The main purpose of this paper was to examine the relationship between monetary base components and production and inflation in Iran's economy. In this regard, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) in the time periods of 1989-2022, the relationship between the variables was estimated. The obtained results showed that the variable effect of commercial banks' debt to the central bank on production and inflation is 0.33 and 0.62, respectively, and the net effect of public sector debt to the central bank on production and inflation is 42, respectively. 0.0 and 0.57. Considering the results obtained and the importance of paying attention to the contribution of each component of the monetary base on inflation and production in the country, the central bank should pay more attention to changing the share of the components of the monetary base and be disciplined in the growth of the sectors that have a high contribution to the country's inflation. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Monetary policy, Monetary base, Production, Inflation, Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) | ||
| مراجع | ||
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