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پیشران ها و متغیرهای مؤثر بر آینده عرضه نیروی انسانی در بازار کار ایران: مطالعه ای با رویکرد ترکیبی دلفی و تحلیل ساختاری | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 19، شماره 41، فروردین 1403، صفحه 145-173 اصل مقاله (1.19 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/iejm.2024.26864.2056 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| حمیده نظری ندوشن1؛ ملیحه علی مندگاری* 2؛ غلامعلی فرجادی3؛ سیده زهرا کلانتری بنادکی4؛ منصور مهینی زاده5 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری جمعیت‌شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار جمعیت شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه یزد | ||
| 3عضو هیئت علمی مؤسسه عالی آموزش و پژوهش مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 4استادیار، روش های آماری و مدلسازی جمعیت، موسسه تحقیقات جمعیت کشور، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 5گروه اقتصاد-دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری-دانشگاه یزد-یزد- ایران. | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 26 اسفند 1402، تاریخ بازنگری: 17 فروردین 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 20 فروردین 1403 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تحقیق حاضر با هدف شناسایی و تحلیل ساختاری تأثیر متقابل متغیرها و پیشران‌های مؤثر بر آینده عرضه نیروی انسانی در بازار کار ایران در افق 1440 (ه.ش) انجام گرفته است. در ابتدا از طریق پژوهش اسنادی و بررسی منابع و مستندات در پیشینه موضوع، تعدادی از متغیرها شناسایی شد و در ادامه از طریق مصاحبه با خبرگان و پیاده‌سازی روش دلفی، متغیرهای کلیدی تعیین شدند و پرسشنامه‌ی تحلیل اثرات متقاطع طراحی و با تشکیل پانل خبرگان (متشکل از 12 نفر از کارشناسان و صاحب نظران در زمینه بازار کار) تکمیل شد. با استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک، میزان تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری هر کدام از متغیرهای شناسایی‌شده، مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت و بر این اساس مشخص شد که متغیرهایی همچون ساخت سنی، فشار اجتماعی، درآمد سرانه، وضعیت تأهل، مهاجرت، مرگ و میر، تولید ناخالص ملی، هزینه تحصیل و هزینه خانوار بیشترین تأثیرگذاری را بر عرضه نیروی انسانی در بازار کار ایران دارند. همچنین متغیرهایی مانند شرایط اقتصادی (تورم و رکود)، حقوق و دستمزد و سیاست‌های دولت از عوامل کلیدی و پیشران هستند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| بازار کار؛ عرضه نیروی انسانی؛ تحلیل اثرات متقاطع؛ تحلیل ساختاری؛ ایران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Propellants and effective variables on the future of Labor supply in Iran's labor market with a combined Delphi approach and structural analysis | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hamideh Nazari- Nodoushan,1؛ Maliheh Alimondegari2؛ Gholamali Farjadi3؛ Seyedeh Zahra Kalantari- Banadaki4؛ Mansour Mahinizadeh5 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Student in Demography, Department of Social Sciences, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. | ||
| 2Associate Professor , Department of Social Sciences, Yazd Univesity. | ||
| 3Associate Professor of Economics, Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 4Assistant Professor, National Institute of Population Studies, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 5Assistant Professor in Economics, Department of Economics, Management and Accounting, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Propellants and effective variables on the future of Labor supply in Iran's labor market with a combined Delphi approach and structural analysis Abstract The present research has been carried out with the present of identifying and structurally analyzing the mutual influence of variables and effective drivers on the labor supply in the labor market of Iran in the horizon of 2061. so, in the beginning, through library research and survey of sources and documents in the background of the issue, a number of variables were identified, and so on key variables were determined through interviews with experts and the implementation of the Delphi method and the cross impact analysis questionnaire was designed and completed with the establishment expert panel (consisting of 12 experts in the context of the labor market). By means of MICMAC software, the degree of influence and effectiveness of each of the identified variables was evaluated and accordingly, It was concluded that variables such as age structure, social pressure, per capita income, marital status, immigration, death rate, gross national product, education cost and household cost have the greatest influence on the supply of human resources in Iran's labor market,and variables such as economic conditions (inflation and recession), payroll and government policies are key and propellant factors. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| labor market, Labor supply, cross effects analysis, structural analysis, Iran | ||
| مراجع | ||
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