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تحلیل اثر تعمیق مالی بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران طی نیم قرن اخیر | ||
پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
مقاله 4، دوره 19، شماره 41، فروردین 1403، صفحه 79-114 اصل مقاله (1.28 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/iejm.2024.26977.2064 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
شهریار زروکی* 1؛ احمدرضا احمدی2؛ فاطمه ملاتبار فیروزجایی3؛ محمد رضا زارع چمازکتی4 | ||
1عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد انرژی دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران | ||
2دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد نظری، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. | ||
3کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران | ||
4کارشناسی ارشد توسعه اقتصادی و برنامهریزی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران. | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 20 فروردین 1403، تاریخ بازنگری: 07 اردیبهشت 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 17 اردیبهشت 1403 | ||
چکیده | ||
در پژوهش حاضر نخست رفاه اقتصادی با استفاده از شاخص ترکیبی رفاه اقتصادی مبتنی بر چهار مؤلفهی جریان مصرف، انباشت ثروت، امنیت و توزیع درآمد محاسبه و برآورد شد. سپس با استفاده از رهیافت خود رگرسیونی با وقفههای توزیعی در قالب سه الگو، اثر تعمیق مالی بر رفاه اقتصادی در دوره زمانی 135۰ تا 140۱ مورد بررسی و آزمون قرار گرفت. در این راستا در باب تعمیق مالی از سه شاخص در مطالعه حاضر استفاده و الگوی پژوهش بر اساس شاخص مجزایی تصریح و برآورد گردید. محاسبه شاخص ترکیبی رفاه بیانگر آن است که شاخص رفاه از برنامهی اول تا برنامه پنجم روند افزایشی داشته است. بهنحویکه از رقم ۹/۲۰ در برنامه اول به رقم ۳/۶۰ در برنامهی پنجم رسیده است. همچنین پس از برنامهی سوم سطح رفاه بیشتر از میانگین کل دوره بوده است. روند حرکتی شاخصهای تعمیق مالی نیز حاکی از وجود روندی تقریباً افزایشی است. نتایج برآورد الگو در بلندمدت نشان میدهد هر سه شاخص تعمیق مالی با اثری مثبت بر رفاه اقتصادی همراه است؛ همچنین رشد اقتصادی و درآمد سرانه اثری مثبت و تورم اثری منفی بر رفاه اقتصادی دارد. یافتهی دیگر آنکه در دوران قبل انقلاب تا پایان جنگ (۱۳۵۵ تا ۱۳۶۸) و پسا ... | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
رفاه اقتصادی؛ تعمیق مالی؛ رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفههای توزیعی؛ ایران | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Analysis of the Effect of Financial Deepening on Economic Well-Being in Iran during the last half century | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Shahryar Zaroki1؛ Ahmadreza Ahmadi2؛ Fatemeh Mollatabar FIroozjaei3؛ Mohammad Reza zare Chamazakhti4 | ||
1Associate Professor in Energy Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babilsar, Iran | ||
2M.Sc. Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
3M.Sc. Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
4Master of Science in Economics Science, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
In the present study, economic well-being was first calculated and estimated using the combined index of economic well-being based on four components of consumption flow, wealth accumulation, security and income distribution. Then, using the approach autoregressive distributed lag in the form of three models, the effect of financial deepening on economic well-being in the period of 1971 to 2022 was investigated and tested. In this regard, regarding financial deepening, three indicators were used in the present study and the research model was specified and estimated based on a separate indicator. The calculation of economic well-being index shows that the well-being index has been increasing from the first plan to the fifth plan. In such a way that it has reached from 20.9 in the first program to 60.3 in the fifth program. Also, after the third program, the welfare level was higher than the average of the entire period. The movement trend of financial deepening indicators also indicates an almost increasing trend. The long-run model estimation results show that all three indicators of financial deepening have a positive effect on economic well-being; Also, economic growth and income per capita have a positive effect and inflation has a negative effect on economic well-being. Another finding is that during the period before the revolution until the end of the war (1976 to 1989) and after the JCPOA, the level of economic well-being of Iran has significantly decreased. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Economic Well-being, Financial Deepening, ARDL, Iran | ||
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