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عوامل طرف عرضه تورم در ایران با تأکید بر تأثیر آستانه‌ای رشد اقتصادی | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| مقاله 3، دوره 19، شماره 42، تیر 1403، صفحه 71-91 اصل مقاله (694.91 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/mrl.2024.27322.2094 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سیدکمال صادقی* ؛ عبیده عامر خضیر البازی | ||
| گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران. | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 04 تیر 1403، تاریخ بازنگری: 30 تیر 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 31 تیر 1403 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| نرخ تورم یکی از مباحث چالش‌برانگیز و اساسی اقتصاد است که تأثیر غیرقابل انکاری بر ثبات اقتصادی همه کشورهای جهان دارد. به همین دلیل بسیاری از محققان و سیاست‌گذاران همواره به دنبال شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر تورم بوده‌اند. در این میان، قیمت نفت به عنوان یکی از متغیرهای جهانی و استراتژیک، می‌تواند تأثیر قابل توجهی به ویژه در کشورهای وابسته به درآمدهای نفتی همچون ایران، بر تورم داشته باشد. بر این اساس، با توجه به اهمیت تورم و ضرورت شناسایی علل و عوامل مؤثر بر آن از یک سو، و نقش برجسته عوامل طرف عرضه از سوی دیگر، هدف مطالعه حاضر، بررسی تأثیر نوسانات قیمت نفت بر نرخ تورم با در نظر گرفتن اثر آستانه‌ای رشد اقتصادی و همچنین شناسایی سایر عوامل طرف عرضه تعیین‌کننده نرخ تورم از جمله فناوری و پویایی بازار کار در دوره زمانی 1375 تا 1401 با استفاده از رویکرد اقتصادسنجی رگرسیون آستانه‌ای سری زمانی می‌باشد. با توجه به نتایج حاصل، قیمت نفت در شرایطی که رشد اقتصادی پایین‌تر از 303/4 درصد است، تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر نرخ تورم دارد. این تأثیر در شرایط رشد اقتصادی بالاتر از حد آستانه‌ای مذکور نیز مثبت و معنی‌دار است، اما مقدار آن کمتر است. علاوه بر این شاخص‌های بیکاری و فناوری تأثیر منفی و معنی‌داری بر نرخ تورم دارد که به ترتیب تأییدی بر نظریه فیلیپس و نظریه رشد سولو (1956) می‌باشند. در مقابل، متغیر اندازه جمعیت تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر نرخ تورم دارد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| اقتصاد ایران؛ روش رگرسیون آستانه‌ای؛ قیمت نفت؛ منحنی فیلیپس | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Supply-Side Determinants of Inflation in Iran with an Emphasis on The Threshold Effect of Economic Growth | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Seyed Kamal Sadeghi؛ Obaida Amer Khudhair Al-Bazi | ||
| Faculty of Economics and Management, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Inflation is one of the challenging and vital issues of economics, which has an undeniable effect on economic stability in the countries all over the world. For this reason, many researchers and policymakers have always sought to identify factors affecting inflation. In the meantime, oil price, as one of the global and strategic variables, can have a significant effect on inflation, especially in countries dependent on oil revenues such as Iran. Accordingly, considering the importance of inflation and the need to identify the causes and factors affecting it on the one hand, and the prominent role of supply side factors on the other hand, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price fluctuations on the inflation rate considering the threshold effect of economic growth, and to identify the other supply-side factors affecting inflation rate, including technology and labor market dynamics during 1375-1401, applying the threshold regression of time series. According to the results, the oil price has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate when the economic growth is lower than 4.303%. This effect is also positive and significant in the economic growth of above the mentioned threshold, but its amount is less. In addition, unemployment and technology have negative and significant effects on inflation rate, which respectively confirm Phillips theory and Solow growth theory. However, population size has a positive and significant effect on inflation rate. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Iran Economy, Oil Price, Phillips Curve, Threshold Regression Method | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 224 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 249 |
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