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اثر ادوار انتخاباتی ایران بر نوسانات بازارهای ارز و طلا؛رهیافتی از قانون والراس | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 19، شماره 43، آبان 1403، صفحه 149-169 اصل مقاله (789.15 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/mrl.2024.27460.2106 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| بیتا شایگانی* 1؛ محمدحسین احسان فر2؛ مجید علی مدد3 | ||
| 1استاد اقتصاد مرکز تحصیلات تکمیلی دانشگاه پیام نور تهران | ||
| 2استادیار، گروه علمی اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام‌نور، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 3دانشجوی دکتری، گروه علمی اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام‌نور، تهران، ایران. | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 24 مرداد 1403، تاریخ بازنگری: 30 مهر 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 24 آبان 1403 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در چند سال اخیر نرخ ارز به دلایل متعددی مانند تورم، سیاست‌های پولی، انواع تحریم‌های اقتصادی و ... شاهد تلاطم‌های فراوانی در اقتصاد ایران بوده است. تحقیقات نشان می‌دهد علاوه بر متغیرهای اقتصادی، عوامل اجتماعی و سیاسی بر نوسانات نرخ ارز و تصمیمات صاحبان دارایی نیز مؤثر بوده است. وعدههای انتخاباتی به مثابه شوک در آستانه انتخابات بر نحوه شکل‌گیری انتظارات فعالان بازار ارز اثر می‌گذارد. عدم تحقق وعده‌ها سبب تلاطم‌های نامنظم در این بازار می‌شود که به آن آشوب اطلاق می‌گردد. آشوب بوجود آمده ابتدا تعادل بازار مالی را بر هم زده اما سرانجاممی‌تواند میرا شده و تعادل مجددی را رقم بزند. این عدم تعادل بهبازار‌های مرتبط انتقال می‌یابد. در این مقاله تلاش شده تأثیر انتخابات ریاست جمهوری بر تلاطم‌های بازار ارز و ایجاد تعادل مجدد با رویکرد قانون والراس در بازه زمانی1379-1396در قالب مدل‌هایDSGE بررسی و تحلیل شود. برازش‌های صورت گرفته بر روی آمار ماهانه، گویای این است که گرچه شوک ناشی از وعدههای پیش از انتخابات موجب آشوب بازار ارز شده اما آثار آن ایستا نبوده است. این شوک پس از انتقال به بازار سایر اقلام دارایی(طلا)میرا شده و تعادل مجددیدر بازار رقم زده است. بدین ترتیب عدم تحقق وعده‌ها صرفاً در دوره کوتاه مدت منتج به سطوح قیمت تعادلی بالاتر در بازار ارز و طلا شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| ادوار انتخاباتی؛ قانون والراس؛ نرخ ارز؛ قیمت طلا؛ مدل DSGE | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating the Effect of Iranian Electoral cycles on Fluctuations Exchange rate and Gold Markets;Application of Walras law | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| bita shaygani1؛ Mohammad Hossein Ehsanfar2؛ majid aimadad3 | ||
| 1Professor of Economics at the Postgraduate Education Center of Payam Noor University in Tehran | ||
| 2Department of Economics, Tehran Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 3PhD Candidate, Department of Economics, Tehran Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In recent years, the exchange rate has witnessed a lot of turmoil in the Iranian economy for many reasons such as inflation, monetary policy, all kinds of economic sanctions, etc. Research shows that in addition to economic variables, social and political factors have also affected the exchange rate fluctuations and the decisions of the owners. Election promises as shock on the eve of the election affect the expectations of currency market participants. Failure to fulfill promises causes irregular turmoil in this market, which is referred to as chaos. The chaos first disrupted the balance of the financial market, but it can eventually be overwhelmed and re -balance. This imbalance is transferred to related markets. In this article, it is attempted to analyze the impact of the presidential election on currency market turmoil and re-balance the Walras' approach in the period of 1979-1996 in the form of DSGE models. Monthly statistics suggests that although the shock from pre -election promises caused the currency market to chaos, its effects were not static. This shock has been dumped after the transfer to the market for other assets (gold) and re -balance in the market. As a result, the failure to fulfill the promises only in the short term has resulted in higher equilibrium price levels in the currency and gold market. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Election periods, Walras law, exchange rate, gold price, DSGE model | ||
| مراجع | ||
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