تعداد نشریات | 31 |
تعداد شمارهها | 491 |
تعداد مقالات | 4,778 |
تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 7,410,572 |
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 5,529,340 |
بررسی تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر زیستپذیری شهرها: موردپژوهی شهر مشهد | ||
مطالعات ساختار و کارکرد شهری | ||
دوره 12، شماره 3، خرداد 1404، صفحه 59-84 اصل مقاله (757.66 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقالات مستقل پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/usfs.2025.27655.2464 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
دکتر حسین حاتمی نژاد1؛ علی حسینی* 2؛ ابوالفضل منصوری اطمینان3؛ مریم بایرامی3 | ||
1استاد، گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامهریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، ایران | ||
2دانشیار، گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامهریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، ایران | ||
3دانشجوی دکتری، گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامهریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، ایران | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 17 شهریور 1403، تاریخ بازنگری: 16 آذر 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 01 اسفند 1403 | ||
چکیده | ||
طی سالهای اخیر، پدیدۀ تغییر اقلیم به محور اصلی چالشهای ناپایدارکنندۀ سکونتگاههای شهری تبدیلشده است. بهطوریکه امروزه بسیاری از شهرهای جهان با پیامدهای برآمده از تغییرات اقلیمی ازجمله افزایش سطح دما، کاهش میزان بارش، خشکسالی و کمبود آب، ناامنی غذایی، آلودگی هوا، تهدید سلامت انسانها، تأثیر بر میزان تقاضای انرژی در فصول گرم و سرد و امثال آن مواجه هستند که تمامی این پیامدها در عمل بر زیستپذیری ساکنان این شهرها اثرگذار بوده است. در این بین، شهرها میتوانند بستر مناسبی برای پاسخ به اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی بهصورت رویکردهای کاهش و سازگاری باشند. به همین منظور، پژوهش حاضر در راستای بررسی تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر زیست-پذیری شهر مشهد انجامگرفته است. این پژوهش به لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از لحاظ ماهیت و روش انجام، توصیفی- تحلیلی است. بدین ترتیب، مبتنی بر چارچوب سنجشی، پرسشنامهای محقق ساخته براساس طیف لیکرت و با استفاده از روش گلولهبرفی بین 40 نفر از متخصصان و پژوهشگران مرتبط با موضوع پژوهش در سطح شهر مشهد توزیعشده و برونداد آن با آزمون همبستگی پیرسون و تحلیل رگرسیون چندگانه، مورد تجزیهوتحلیل قرارگرفته است. نتایج بررسی دادههای اسنادی در این پژوهش نشان میدهد که شهر مشهد طی پنج دهۀ اخیر با افزایش 2/8 درجه سانتیگرادی دما، کاهش 2/41 میلیمتری بارش و کاهش 31 روزی تعداد روزهای یخبندان مواجه بوده که این موارد مبین وجود پدیده تغییر اقلیم در سطح این شهر است. همچنین نتایج حاکی از آن است که بین اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی و زیستپذیری شهر مشهد رابطهای معنادار، معکوس و قوی برقرار بوده (ضریب همبستگی 922/0-) که این امر نشانگر آن است که تغییرات اقلیمی حادثشده در سطح شهر مشهد در عمل بر زیستپذیری این شهر اثرات سو داشتهاند. از سوی دیگر، از بین اثرات اجتماعی، اقتصادی، کالبدی و محیطزیستیِ تغییرات اقلیمی، اثرات محیط-زیستی (با ضریب رگرسیونی 602/0-)، بیشترین اثرگذاری را بر کاهش زیستپذیری شهر مشهد داشته است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
گرمایش جهانی؛ گازهای گلخانهای؛ تغییرات اقلیمی؛ زیستپذیری شهری؛ شهر مشهد | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Livability of Cities: A Case Study of Mashhad City | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Hossein Hataminezhad1؛ Ali Hosseini2؛ Abolfazl mansouri etminan3؛ Maryam Bayrami3 | ||
1Professor, Department of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
2Associate Professor, Department of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
3Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
In recent years, the phenomenon of climate change has become the main focus of the destabilizing challenges of human settlements. Today, many cities in the world are facing the consequences of climate change, including increased temperatures, decreased rainfall, drought and water shortages, food insecurity, air pollution, threats to human health, impacts on energy demand in hot and cold seasons, and the like, all of which have had an impact on the livability of the residents of these cities. In the meantime, cities can be a suitable platform for responding to the effects of climate change in the form of mitigation and adaptation approaches. For this purpose, the present research has been conducted to investigate the effects of climate change on the livability of Mashhad city. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature and method. In this way, based on the measurement framework, a researcher-made questionnaire based on the Likert scale and using the snowball method was distributed among 40 experts and researchers related to the research topic in Mashhad city. The results of document data analysis in this research show that during the last five decades, the city of Mashhad has faced an increase of 2.8 degrees Celsius in temperature, a decrease of 41.2 mm in precipitation, and a decrease of 31 days in the number of freezing days. These cases show the existence of climate change in this city. Also, the results indicate that there is a significant, inverse, and strong relationship between the effects of climate change and the livability of Mashhad (correlation coefficient -0.922), which indicates that the climatic changes that have occurred in the city of Mashhad have had negative effects on the livability of this city. On the other hand, among the social, economic, physical, and environmental effects of climate change, the environmental effects (with a regression coefficient of -0.602) have had the greatest effect on reducing the livability of Mashhad. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Global warming, greenhouse gases, climate change, urban livability, Mashhad city | ||
مراجع | ||
Abbasi, F., Kohi, M., Flamarzi, Y., Javanshiri, Z., Malbusi, S., & Babaian, A. (2019). Analysis of the trend of average temperature and annual precipitation in Iran in the period from 1988 to 2017. Newar Quarterly, 43(106-107), 38-51,
https://doi.org/10.30467/NIVAR.2019.184059.1128 [In Persian].
Abedi, S., & Sedaqat, M. (2021). Assessment the effects of climate change on tourism demand in Iranian cities. Scientific Quarterly of Economics and Urban Management, 10(37), 1-18, https://doi.org/10.52547/iueam.10.37.1 [In Persian].
Ahmed, N., Padda, I.U.H., Khan, A. Otil, M., Cismas, L., Miculescu, A., & Rehman, A. (2023). Climate change adaption strategies in urban communities: new evidence from Islamabad, Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 42108–42121,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25316-x.
Alahmad, B., Khraishah, H., Althalji, Kh., MPhil, W., Al-Mulla, F., & Koutrakis, P. (2023). onnections Between Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Cardiovascular Health. Canadian Journal of Cardiology, 39(9),
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjca.2023.03.025.
Asadi, A., Nasiran, A., Khedri Gharibvand, H., & Keihani, S. (2023). Revealing climate changes using precipitation limit indices (case study: Najafabad city, Isfahan province). Geography and Human Relations Quarterly, 6(1), 379-400,
https://doi.org/10.22034/GAHR.2023.379092.1787 [In Persian].
Chan, E. Y. Y., Ho, J. Y., Hung, H. H., & Lam, H. C. (2019). Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China. British Medical Bulletin, 130: 5–24, https://doi: 10.1093/bmb/ldz011.
Davoudi, A., & Muradjani, S. (2018). Spatial analysis of climate changes in Iran during recent decades. Journal of Geographical Sciences (Applied Geography), 14(29), 82-90,
https://journals.iau.ir/article_669691_2ba468b81d3a1698995a14bd09dfb4d9.pdf [In Persian].
Derakhsandeh, A., Khurani, A., & Rezazadeh, M. (2023). Precipitation trends in Iran based on MERRA2 data. Journal of Physics and Space, 49(3), 669-683, https://doi.org/10.22059/JESPHYS.2023.350125.1007465 [In Persian].
Diaz, D., & Moore, F. (2017). Quantifying the economic risks of climate change. Nat. Climate Chang, 7, 774–782, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3411
Du, Z., Lawrence, W. R., Zhang, W., Zhang, D., Yu, S., & Hao, Y. (2019). Interactions between climate factors and air pollution on daily HFMD cases: a time series study in Guangdong, China. Sci. Total Environ. 656, 1358–1364, https://doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.11.391.
Egerer, M., Haase, D., McPhearson, T., Frantzeskaki, N., Andersson, E., Nagendra, H., & Ossola, A. (2021). Urban change as an untapped opportunity for climate adaptation. Npj Urban Sustainability, 1(1), 22, https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-021-00024-y
Emilija, S. (2017). Understanding the Livability in a City through Smart Solutions and Urban Planning Toward Developing Sustainable Livable Future of the City of Skopje. Procardia Environmental Science, (37), 442-453, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2017.03.014
Faryadi, S., & Alavi Naini, A. (2020). Earth warming in Tehran city and presenting participatory policies to reduce its effects. Earth Sciences Quarterly, 30(118), 145-152,
https://doi.org/10.22071/gsj.2020.238434.1816 [In Persian].
Feizi, F., & Barakpour, N. (2021). Assessment of the development plans of Tehran metropolis and its region from the perspective of the consequences of climate change. Sofeh Scientific Journal of Architecture and Urban Planning, 32(2), 71-88, https://doi.org/10.52547/SOFEH.32.2.71 [In Persian].
Golestani, Z., Borna, R., Mohammadi, H., & Asadian, F. (2024). Investigating the role of vegetation and land use in the occurrence of heat island (case study: Isfahan city). Human Settlements Planning Studies Quarterly, 19(1), https://journals.iau.ir/article_701401.html [In Persian].
Han, Q., Kumar, R., & Kumar, A. (2024). Climate change and human migration: Perspectives for environmentally sustainable societies. Journal of Geochemical Exploration, 256, 107352, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gexplo.2023.107352.
He, X., Khan, S., Ozturk, I., & Murshed, M. (2023). The role of renewable energy investment in tackling climate change concerns: Environmental policies for achieving SDG-13. Sustainable Development, 31(3), 1888-1901, https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2491.
Higgs, C., Badland, H., Simons, K., D. Knibbs, L., & Giles‑Cort, B. (2018). The Urban livability Index: developing a policy-relevant urban livability composite measure and evaluating associations with transport mode choice. International Journal of Health Geographic's,
Hobbie, S. E., & Grimm, N. B. (2020). Nature-based approaches to managing climate change impacts in cities. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 375(1794), 20190124, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0124.
Information base of Mashhad city municipality. (2022).
https://www.mashhad.ir/ [In Persian].
Iran Statistics Center. (2016). the results of the general population and housing census,
https://www.amar.org.ir [In Persian].
Karmi, S. (2020). Investigating the consequences and methods of climate change management (case example: the central watershed of Iran). Applied Research Journal of Geographical Sciences, 20(59), 19-37, https://doi.org/10.29252/jgs.20.59.19 [In Persian].
Kumar, P. (2021). Climate change and cities: challenges ahead. Frontiers in Sustainable Cities, 3, 645613, https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2021.645613.
Leal Filho, W., Tuladhar, L., Li, C., Balogun, A. L. B., Kovaleva, M., Abubakar, I. R., ... & Donkor, F. K. (2021). Climate change and liveability of cities: an assessment of possible health threats associated with increased temperatures in cities,
https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-610514/v1.
Lee, C. C., Zeng, M., & Luo, K. (2024). How does climate change affect food security? Evidence from China. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 104, 107324,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107324.
Liang, L. I., Deng, X., Wang, P., Wang, Z., & Wang, L. (2020). Assessment of the impact of climate change on cities livability in China. Science of the Total Environment, 726, 138339, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138339.
López, I., Ortega, J., & Pardo, M. (2020). Mobility infrastructures in cities and climate change: an analysis through the superblocks in Barcelona. Atmosphere, 11(4), 410,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040410.
Ma, Q., Qi, Y., Shan, Q., Liu, S., & He, H. (2020). Understanding the knowledge gaps between air pollution controls and health impacts including pathogen epidemic. Environ. Res.189:109949,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.109949.
Mesri Alamdari, P., & Rasouli, H. (2023). Analysis of the impact of urban climate changes on the spatial distribution of population with an emphasis on thermal islands (case example: Sari city). Scientific Journal of Geography and Planning, 25(77), 231-243, https://doi.org/10.22131/sepehr.2023.551734.2863 [In Persian].
Mi, Z., Guan, D., Liu, Z., Liu, J., Viguié, V., Fromer, N., & Wang, Y. (2019). Cities: The core of climate change mitigation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 207, 582-589,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.034.
Mohammadi deh Cheshme, M., Qhaedi, S., & Shanbepour, F. (2022). Modeling the structural consequences of climate change in Ahvaz using the System Dynamic model. Geographical Information Quarterly (Sephr), 31(124), 87-101,
https://doi.org/10.22131/sepehr.2023.551734.2863 [In Persian].
National Academy of sciences. (2020). Climate Change: Evidence and Causes. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
https://doi.org/10.17226/18730.
Nyashilu, I. M., Kiunsi, R., & Kyessi, A. G. (2023). Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Tanzania’s City’s Master Plans. A Critical Review. International Journal of Social Science Research and Review, 6(1), 160-176,
https://doi.org/10.47814/ijssrr.v6i1.761.
Orsetti, E., Tollin, N., Lehmann, M., Valderrama, VA., & Morató, J. (2022). Building Resilient Cities: Climate Change and Health Interlinkages in the Planning of Public Spaces. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(3):1355. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031355.
Pareek, A., Dhankher, O. P., & Foyer, C. H. (2020). Mitigating the impact of climate change on plant productivity and ecosystem sustainability. Journal of Experimental Botany, 71(2), 451-456, https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erz518.
Parizadi, T., Moradi, T., & Saki, F. (2019). Analysis of livability in the neighborhoods of the central part of the cities; Case study: the central part of Borujerd city. Scientific-Research Quarterly of Urban Studies, 8(31), 3-16, https://doi.org/10.34785/J011.2019.827 [In Persian].
Qian, Q. H. (2016). Present state, problems and development trends of urban underground space in China. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 55, 280-289.
Razzaghi Asl, S., Khatami, M., & Omati, M. (2018). Identifying the effective components in the livability of subsurface safe spaces based on the grounded theory approach. Urban Management Quarterly, 17(50), 137-144,
https://www.sid.ir/paper/91933/fa [In Persian].
Rennie Short, J. (2021). Cities worldwide aren’t adapting to climate change quickly enough. 1.44pm BST.
Rennie Short, J., & Farmer, A. (2021). Cities and Climate Change, Earth, 2, 1038–1045.
https://doi.org/ 10.3390/earth2040061.
Sadeghlou, T., & Arab, S. (2024). Analysis of adaptation solutions of local communities with the effects of 120-day winds in Sistan (case study: villages of Nahbandan city). Human Settlements Planning Studies Quarterly, 19(4), https://journals.iau.ir/article_706356.html [In Persian].
Semenza, J. C., & Ebi, K. L. (2019). Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry. Journal of Travel Medicine, 26(5), taz026,
https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taz026.
Shi, Ch., Guo, N., Zeng, L., & Wu, F. (2022). How climate change is going to affect urban livability in China, Climate Services, 26, 100284,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100284.
Statistical Yearbook of Razavi Khorasan Province. (2020). Chapter I, Land and Climate,
https://nnt.sci.org.ir/sites/Apps/yearbook/Lists/year_book_req/Item/newifs.aspx [In Persian].
Tahir, F., & Al-Ghamdi, S. G. (2023). Climatic change impacts on the energy requirements for the built environment sector. Energy Reports, 9, 670-676,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.11.033.
Teimuri, H., Hafeznia. M., & PapoliYazdi, M. (2023). Explaining the hydropolitical consequences of climate change in Iran (a case study of the Zayandehroud watershed). Space Political Analysis Quarterly, 5(3), 249-269, https://doi.org/20.1001.1.26455145.2023.5.3.1.2 [In Persian].
The website of the National Meteorological Organization. (2022).
https://www.irimo.ir/far/index.php [In Persian].
Valigholizadeh, A. (2019). Explaining the economic effects of climate change in the life of human societies. Geographical Space Scientific Quarterly, 19(67), 161-198, http://geographical-space.iau-ahar.ac.ir/article-1-3412-fa.html [In Persian].
Xu, Y., & Lamarque, J. F. (2018). Isolating the meteorological impact of 21st century GHG warming on the removal and atmospheric loading of anthropogenic fine particulate matter pollution at global scale. Earth Future, 6, 428–440, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000684.
Yaghfouri, H., & Rahmani, A. (2024). Climate change and urban instability: evaluating the consequences of climate migrants on cities, case study: Zahedan city. Quarterly Journal of Geography and Environmental Studies, 12(48), 126-141,
https://sanad.iau.ir/journal/ges/Article/703826?jid=703826 [In Persian]
| ||
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 230 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 58 |