تعداد نشریات | 30 |
تعداد شمارهها | 467 |
تعداد مقالات | 4,531 |
تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 7,151,204 |
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 5,340,821 |
کاربست رویکرد سناریونویسی با هدف آیندهنگاری اخلاق حرفهای در اکوسیستم کسب و کار ایران | ||
پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی | ||
دوره 16، شماره 32، اسفند 1403، صفحه 205-234 اصل مقاله (791.82 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مدیریت کارآفرینی( مدیریت کسبوکار، فرایندهای کسبوکار، سیاستهای کارآفرینانه، کارآفرینی سازمانی، اکوسیستم کارآفرینی، فضای کسبوکار، مدلهای کسبوکار، چرخه حیات کسب و کارها، . . . ) | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/jem.2025.26713.3920 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
عیسی نیازی* ؛ محمد علی سیاه سرانی کجوری؛ حسین بلوچی | ||
گروه پژوهشی توسعه و رفاه اجتماعی، پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی تعاون، توسعه و رفاه اجتماعی؛ دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 02 فروردین 1403، تاریخ بازنگری: 07 آبان 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 28 آذر 1403 | ||
چکیده | ||
هدف پژوهش حاضر، کاربست رویکرد سناریونویسی با هدف آیندهنگاری اخلاق حرفهای در اکوسیستم کسب و کار ایران در افق 1410 میباشد. این پژوهش به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش، ترکیبی از روشهای اسنادی و پیمایشی و از نظر ماهیت، بر اساس روش جدید علم آیندهپژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش حاضر مدیران بنگاههای اقتصادی و اساتید حوزه و دانشگاه فعال در حیطه اخلاق حرفهای و کسب و کارها هستند. در این پژوهش در ابتدا با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانهای و تشکیل پنل خبرگان روندهای مؤثر بر اخلاق حرفهای در زیست بوم کسب و کار ایران در افق 1410 شناسایی و در گام بعدی، طی دو مرحله روش دلفی روندهای شناسایی شده مورد پالایش قرار گرفتند و در مرحله بعدی متغیرهای کلیدی (ده عامل) با استفاده از روش تحلیل ساختاری شناسایی شد و در نهایت با استفاده از روش سناریونویسی، آیندههای متصور بر اخلاق حرفهای در زیستبوم کسب و کار ایران استخراج گردیدند. در پژوهش حاضر، برای تحلیل دادهها از نرمافزارهای اسپیاساس، میکمک و سناریوویزارد استفاده شد. در این پژوهش با توجه به ابعاد ماتریس سایب ، تعداد 2857 سناریوی ترکیبی گزارش گردید که از این سناریوها، تعداد 15 سناریوی قوی یا محتمل، 19 سناریوی باور کردنی و 23 سناریوی ضعیف میباشند که در خصوص سناریوهای محتمل یا قوی بررسیها نشان داد که اکثر شاخصهای مؤثر بر آینده اخلاق حرفهای در زیستبوم کسب و کار ایران در افق 1410 در شرایط بحرانی قرار دارند. پژوهش حاضر چهار سناریوی «عدالت در فراز و نشیب»، «مدیریت بومی، بازار جهانی»، «بقا در دوران تاریک» و «تعامل ملی، مقاومت جهانی» را بهعنوان مسیرهای آینده اخلاق حرفهای در کسبوکار ایران ترسیم کرده است. نتایج نشان میدهد که عوامل کلیدی مانند شفافیت قوانین، نظارت دولتی، تعاملات بینالمللی، و تقویت ارزشهای بومی در بهبود یا تضعیف اخلاق حرفهای و تعهد سازمانی تأثیر دارند. یافتههای این پژوهش همسو با مطالعات مشابه، بر اهمیت سیاستهای شفاف، تعاملات بینالمللی، و تقویت هویت فرهنگی تأکید دارد و به مدیران و سیاستگذاران توصیه میکند که با رویکردی متعادل، به بهبود فضای اخلاقی و پایداری کسبوکار بپردازند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آینده نگاری؛ اخلاق حرفه ای؛ اکوسیستم کسب و کار؛ سناریونویسی؛ تحلیل اثرات متقابل | ||
موضوعات | ||
مدیریت کارآفرینی | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Application of the Scenario Planning Approach with the Aim of Foresighting Professional Ethics in Iran's Business Ecosystem | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Eesa Niazi؛ Mohammad Ali Siahsarani Kojuri؛ Hossein Balouchi | ||
Development and social welfare Research Group, Strategic Studies of Cooperation, Development and Social Welfare Institute, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
The present study aims to apply a scenario-writing approach to forecast the future of professional ethics within Iran’s business ecosystem by the horizon of 2031. This research is applied in nature and combines documentary and survey methods, drawing upon new analytical and exploratory methods in futures studies. The target population includes managers of business enterprises and academic experts specializing in professional ethics and business. Initially, through library studies and an expert panel, the study identifies trends impacting professional ethics within Iran's business ecosystem by 2031. Subsequently, these trends undergo refinement through a two-stage Delphi method, followed by the identification of ten key factors using structural analysis. Finally, scenarios were generated to outline possible futures for professional ethics in Iran’s business landscape. For data analysis, SPSS, MICMAC, and Scenario Wizard software were utilized. The analysis yielded 2,857 combined scenarios, of which 15 were categorized as strong or likely, 19 as plausible, and 23 as weak. Among the probable scenarios, the findings indicated that most influential indicators on the future of professional ethics in Iran’s business ecosystem by 2031 are in a critical state. This study outlines four primary scenarios for the future of professional ethics in Iranian business: "Justice in Flux," "Local Management, Global Market," "Survival in the Dark Ages," and "National Engagement, Global Resistance." The results highlight that key factors, such as legal transparency, government oversight, international relations, and strengthening of local values, play a vital role in either enhancing or weakening professional ethics and organizational commitment. Aligning with similar studies, these findings emphasize the importance of transparent policies, international interactions, and cultural identity reinforcement, and recommend a balanced approach for managers and policymakers to improve ethical standards and business sustainability. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Foresight, Professional Ethics, Business Ecosystem, Scenario Planning, Cross Impact Analysis | ||
مراجع | ||
Aaron, B., Glover, A., Sterling, E., Downs, S., & Lesandrini, J. (2021). Impact of a Novel Method of Ethics Education on Nurse Leaders’ Capacity for Moral Decision-Making: An Exploratory Qualitative Study. Nurse Leader. Alizadeh, N., & Yousofi, M. (2023). The Impact of Organizational Culture on Ethical Behavior in the Workplace: A Study in Government Organizations. Iranian Social Research Journal, 12(1), 23-39. (In Persian) Alizadeh, S. (2018). Focal analysis of the relationship between the components of professional ethics and dimensions of social responsibility. Ethics in Science and Technology, 5(1): 117-123. Amato, P., Daar, J., Francis, L., Klipstein, S., Ball, D., Rinaudo, P., & Reindollar, R. (2020). Ethics in embryo research: a position statement by the ASRM Ethics in Embryo Research Task Force and the ASRM Ethics Committee. Fertility and Sterility, 113(2), 270-294. Amel Riazatkosh, E., Khayat Moghadam, S., & Rezaifar, H. (2017). Predicting knowledge management through professional ethics. Ethics in Science and Technology, 12(1): 48-55. (In Persian) Attapur, Z., Hasani, M., & Qalavandi, H. (2016). Investigating the relationship between professional ethics and social capital with organizational citizenship behavior among teachers. Educational Leadership and Management Research, 6(14): 127-156. (In Persian) Bartholdson, C., af Sandeberg, M., Molewijk, B., & Pergert, P. (2021). Does participation in ethics discussions have an impact on ethics decision-making? A cross-sectional study among healthcare professionals in paediatric oncology. European Journal of Oncology Nursing, 52, 101950. Benisi, P. (2018). Predicting organizational memory based on organizational silence and professional ethics in Tehran school principals. Leadership and Educational Management, 8(49): 59-73. (In Persian) Behbahani, M., Rezaei, S., & colleagues. (2023). Analyzing the Current Status of Professional Ethics in Iranian Businesses: Challenges and Solutions. Journal of Management and Development, 25(2), 45-67. (In Persian) Bottrell, M. M., Simon, A., Geppert, C., Chang, E. T., Asch, S. M., & Rubenstein, L. (2020). Facilitating ethical quality improvement initiatives: Design and implementation of an initiative-specific ethics committee. Healthcare, 8(2): 100-142. Borzou, S. R., Oshvandi, K., Cheraghi, F., & Moayed, M. S. (2019). Comparative study of nursing PhD education system and curriculum in Iran and John Hopkins School of Nursing. Educ Strategy Med Sci, 9(3): 194-205. (In Persian). Brown, M. E., & Treviño, L. K. (2023). Ethical leadership: A review and future directions. The Leadership Quarterly. Cohen, J., & Coyle, A. (2023). Ethical Decision-Making in Times of Crisis: A Practical Framework. Journal of Business Ethics. Farzin, F., Bani-Talebi Dehkordi, B., & Bakhshi-Najad, M. (2017). The relationship between individual and social structures on the teaching of accounting professional ethics. Ethics in Science and Technology, 9(1): 145-153. (In Persian) Fattahi, Z., & Fariman, H. (2023). Theoretical Gaps in Research on Professional Ethics in Iran. Journal of Ethics and Sustainable Development Management, 18(4), 11-28. (In Persian) Fennell, D. A. (2020). Tourism and wildlife photography codes of ethics: Developing a clearer picture. Annals of Tourism Research, 85, 103023. Fischer, R., et al. (2023). The impact of organizational ethics on employee performance: A comprehensive review. Journal of Organizational Behavior. Formosa, P., Wilson, M., & Richards, D. (2021). A Principlist Framework for Cybersecurity Ethics. Computers & Security, 102382. Gharamaleki, A. F. (2012). Introduction to professional ethics. 5th Edition. Tehran: Publishing Saramad. Pp. 174-175. (In Persian). Genghizi, M. A., Mujibi, T., Otadi, M., & Mirspasi, N. (2018). Exploring the indicators of professional ethics of faculty members using the fuzzy AHP method. Ethics in Science and Technology, 12(4): 80-86. Gonzalez-Padron, T. L. (2023). The Role of Business Ethics in Creating a Competitive Advantage. Journal of Business Ethics. Guo, Y., Wang, L., & Yang, Q. (2020). Do corporate environmental ethics influence firms’ green practice? The mediating role of green innovation and the moderating role of personal ties. Journal of Cleaner Production, 122054. Hajiha, V., & Rajab Dari, H. (2016). The relationship between Islamic work ethics and professional ethics in accounting teachers. Islam and Management, 4(12): 139-156. Harrison, J. S., & Wicks, A. C. (2023). Stakeholder Theory, Value Creation, and Sustainability. Business Ethics Quarterly. Heydari, M., Razavi, S. M. H., Amirnjad, S., & Mohammadi, N. (2018). Identifying obstacles to the development of professional ethics of managers of sports organizations. Organizational Behavior Management Studies in Sports, 10(23): 23-35. Hosseini, F., & Moradi, K. (2023). Examining Ethical Challenges in Iranian Businesses and Proposed Solutions. Management and Innovation, 14(3), 15-30. (In Persian) Ismail, S. J., Hardy, K., Tunis, M. C., Young, K., Sicard, N., & Quach, C. (2020). A framework for the systematic consideration of ethics, equity, feasibility, and acceptability in vaccine program recommendations. Vaccine. Jafari Rad, S., Gurbanhosseini, M., Amini, Z. A., & Rostami Bashmani, M. (2022). Designing a model of professional ethics for managers based on religious sources. Islamic lifestyle magazine with a focus on health, 5(4), 63-74. Kabiri, Z., Aghaei, N., & Sabunchi, R. (2018). Modeling the mediating role of social responsibility in the causal relationship between the professional ethics of managers and the civic ethics of fans of Iran's First Division football clubs. Organizational Behavior Management Studies in Sports, 7(23): 121-134. (In Persian) Kaptein, M. (2022). The Ethics Management Framework: A Structured Approach to Ethical Decision-Making. Business Ethics: A European Review. Kidd, D., Miner, J., Schein, M., Blauw, M., & Allen, D. (2020). Ethics across the curriculum: Detecting and describing emergent trends in ethics education. Studies in Educational Evaluation, 67, 100914. Khaled, W. B., Gérard, B., & Farjaudon, A. L. (2021). Analysis of the political and identity dynamics of a dominant mode of control: The case of business ethics control and its legalization. Critical Perspectives on Accounting, 102291. Khaledian, M., & Ismailpour, E. (2017). Investigating the relationship between job satisfaction, professional ethics and conflict management of public library librarians in Tehran province. Information Management and Science, 5(2): 35-45. (In Persian) Kia, A. A., & Sapi, A. M. (2018). The position of the principles and values of professional ethics in commercial advertising. News Science, 6(29): 137-155. (In Persian) Khoshdel Mofidi, M., Halajian, I., Mehrara, A., & Bagherzadeh, M. R. (2018). The relationship between the talent management model and the professional ethics of Iranian customs employees. Ethics in Science and Technology, 10(4): 190-194. (In Persian) Kowaleski, Z. T., Sutherland, A. G., & Vetter, F. W. (2020). Can ethics be taught? Evidence from securities exams and investment adviser misconduct. Journal of Financial Economics. Lensink MA., Boers, S. N., Jongsma, K. R., Carter, S. E., van der Ent, C. K., Bredenoord, A. L. (2020). Organoids for personalized treatment of Cystic Fibrosis: Professional perspectives on the ethics and governance of organoid biobanking. Journal of Cystic Fibrosis. Macnish K, Van der Ham J. (2020). Ethics in cybersecurity research and practice. Technology in Society, 63, 101382. Marques-Sulé, E., Arnal-Gómez, A., Cortés-Amador, S., de la Torre, M. I., Hernández, D., & Aguilar-Rodríguez, M. (2021). Attitudes towards learning professional ethics in undergraduate physiotherapy students: A STROBE compliant cross-sectional study. Nurse Education Today, 98, 104771. Martínez C., Skeet AG., Sasia PM. (2020). Managing organizational ethics: How ethics becomes pervasive within organizations. Business Horizons. Megregian M., Low, L. K., Emeis C., de Vries, R., & Nieuwenhuijze, M. (2020). “I’m sure we talked about it”: Midwives experiences of ethics education and ethical dilemmas, a qualitative study. Women and Birth. Mentzelopoulos SD, Couper K, Van de Voorde, P., Druwé, P., Blom, M., Perkins, G. D., ... & Bossaert, L. (2021). European Resuscitation Council Guidelines 2021: ethics of resuscitation and end of life decisions. Resuscitation, 161, 408-432. Mokhtaripoor M, Siadat A. (2009). Management moral intelligence. Tadbir Monthly; 16(205): 29-33. (In Persian) Nadi MA, Akbari F, Mohammad Hosseinian A. (2018). The relationship between cultural intelligence and professional ethics. Ethics in Science and Technology, No. 2, pp. 149-151. Nasiri Valik Bani F, Navidi P. (2016). Relationship between professional ethics & organizational agility: Empowerment cognitive as mediator. Ethics in Science and Technology; 11(2): 61-68. (In Persian) Nouriyan M, Atashk M, Salem S, Jamshidzadeh Kyasrayy M. (2016). The impact of demographic factors on the possibility of observing professional ethics teaching in universities. Ethics in Science and Technology; 11(1): 85-94. (In Persian) Oermann MH, Barton A, Yoder-Wise PS, Morton PG. (2021). Research in nursing education and the institutional review board/ethics committee. Journal of Professional Nursing, 37(2), 342-347. Pourhaider R, Hasani M, Morteza Nejad N, Samari M. (2018). Structural relationships of organizational trust, professional ethics and organizational structure with school effectiveness with the mediating role of teacher performance evaluation. Education and Evaluation, 7(47): 93-116. Rahbar F, Saifuddin Asl AA, Shah Hosseini MA, Niazi I. (2016). Crude oil price scenario writing based on identification of key factors and analysis of actors' interactions. Management Improvement, 11(4): 93-135. Rahbar F, Saifuddin Asl AA, Shah Hosseini MA, Niazi I. (2017). Designing a model for scenario planning based on identifying key factors and analyzing the interactions of key actors. Public Management Research, 11(39), 61-90. doi: 10.22111/jmr.2018.4011. Rahbar F, Saifuddin Asl AA, Shah Hosseini MA, Niazi I. (2017). Identifying and analyzing macrotrends affecting the price of crude oil with a foresight approach. Management Improvement, 12(2): 1-26. Yilmaz Ş, Güven GÖ. (2021). An important development for nursing ethics: Establishment of nursing history and ethics department and developments in Turkey. Ethics, Medicine and Public Health, 17, 100662. Yousefi Y, Nasr Isfahani A, Kazemi A. (2017). The state of compliance with the human dimension of professional ethics in the judicial system. Ethics in Science and Technology, 4(2): 39-51. | ||
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 2 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 2 |