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مقایسه اثرگذاری نااطمینانی اقتصادی برشاخص نابرابری توزیع درآمد در ایران و فدراسیون روسیه | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 20، شماره 47، آذر 1404، صفحه 39-59 اصل مقاله (768.92 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/mrl.2025.30272.2206 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| احسان رسولینژاد* | ||
| گروه مطالعات فرامنطقه ای و جهانی، دانشکده مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 21 مهر 1404، تاریخ بازنگری: 14 آبان 1404، تاریخ پذیرش: 24 آبان 1404 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| نااطمینانی اقتصادی بهعنوان یک عامل کلیدی، تصمیمسازیهای اقتصادی و وضعیت رفاه اجتماعی را تحت تأثیر قرار میدهد. این مقاله با رویکردی تطبیقی، به بررسی اثر نااطمینانی اقتصادی بر نابرابری درآمد در ایران و فدراسیون روسیه با استفاده از دادههای فصلی دوره ۲۰۰۴ تا ۲۰۲۴ میپردازد. با طراحی و ساخت شاخص نوآورانه نااطمینانی مبتنی بر دادههای گوگل ترندز و با استفاده از کلیدواژههای بومی هر کشور، و بهکارگیری رهیافت الگوی خودتوضیح با وقفه های توزیع شده برای تمایز بین اثرات کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت، نتایج نشان میدهد که نااطمینانی اقتصادی بهطور معناداری بر نابرابری درآمد در هر دو کشور اثر میگذارد؛ با این حال، مکانیسم، شدت و پویایی زمانی این اثر کاملاً متفاوت است. یافتههای کلیدی نشان میدهند که در هر دو کشور، شوک نااطمینانی در کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت موجب کاهش نابرابری میشود، اما این اثر برای ایران بهمراتب قویتر و با سرعت تعدیل سریعتری نسبت به روسیه است. این امر میتواند ناشی از آسیبپذیری بیشتر داراییها و درآمدهای قشر مرفه در اقتصاد پرنوسان ایران باشد. یافتهها بر اهمیت طراحی سیاستهای ثباتبخش و نیز تقویت نهادهای بازتوزیعی متناسب با ساختار و پویاییهای خاص هر کشور برای مدیریت اثرات توزیعی نااطمینانی تأکید دارد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| نااطمینانی اقتصادی؛ نابرابری درآمد؛ ضریب جینی؛ ایران؛ روسیه | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Comparison of effects of economic uncertainty on inequality of income distribution index in Iran and Russian Federation | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ehsan Rasoulinezhad | ||
| Department of Transregional and Global Studies, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The global economy is increasingly grappling with the phenomenon of economic uncertainty, a key factor that has become an influential core affecting the decision-making of economic actors as well as the state of social welfare and justice. This article, adopting a comparative and innovative approach, meticulously investigates the impacts of economic uncertainty on the income gap in the economies of Iran and the Russian Federation. To achieve this objective, extensive quarterly data from the 2004-2024 period has been used. The innovative component of this research is the design and construction of a quantitative Uncertainty Index (GTU) based on real and dynamic Google Trends data, utilizing native and country-specific keywords. For data analysis, the ARDL econometric approach was employed to distinguish between short-term and long-term effects. The findings reveal that economic uncertainty significantly affects income inequality in both countries; however, the crucial point is the fundamental differences in the mechanism, intensity, and temporal dynamics of these effects. At the core of the results lies the surprising finding that uncertainty shocks in both countries, across both short-term and long-term horizons, lead to a reduction in income inequality. But this reducing effect is considerably stronger and has a faster adjustment speed for Iran compared to Russia. This phenomenon can be interpreted as resulting from the greater vulnerability of assets and incomes of the affluent class in Iran's volatile and unstable economy, where wealth is exposed to more severe fluctuations. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Economic uncertainty, income inequality, GINI Index, Iran, Russia | ||
| مراجع | ||
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