Related Links
Statistics
| Number of Journals | 32 |
| Number of Issues | 554 |
| Number of Articles | 5,380 |
| Article View | 8,161,418 |
| PDF Download | 6,064,433 |
Comparison of effects of economic uncertainty on inequality of income distribution index in Iran and Russian Federation | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| Article 2, Volume 20, Issue 47, September 2025, Pages 39-59 PDF (768.92 K) | ||
| Document Type: Scientific paper | ||
| DOI: 10.22080/mrl.2025.30272.2206 | ||
| Author | ||
| Ehsan Rasoulinezhad* | ||
| Department of Transregional and Global Studies, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| Receive Date: 13 October 2025, Revise Date: 05 November 2025, Accept Date: 15 November 2025 | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The global economy is increasingly grappling with the phenomenon of economic uncertainty, a key factor that has become an influential core affecting the decision-making of economic actors as well as the state of social welfare and justice. This article, adopting a comparative and innovative approach, meticulously investigates the impacts of economic uncertainty on the income gap in the economies of Iran and the Russian Federation. To achieve this objective, extensive quarterly data from the 2004-2024 period has been used. The innovative component of this research is the design and construction of a quantitative Uncertainty Index (GTU) based on real and dynamic Google Trends data, utilizing native and country-specific keywords. For data analysis, the ARDL econometric approach was employed to distinguish between short-term and long-term effects. The findings reveal that economic uncertainty significantly affects income inequality in both countries; however, the crucial point is the fundamental differences in the mechanism, intensity, and temporal dynamics of these effects. At the core of the results lies the surprising finding that uncertainty shocks in both countries, across both short-term and long-term horizons, lead to a reduction in income inequality. But this reducing effect is considerably stronger and has a faster adjustment speed for Iran compared to Russia. This phenomenon can be interpreted as resulting from the greater vulnerability of assets and incomes of the affluent class in Iran's volatile and unstable economy, where wealth is exposed to more severe fluctuations. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Economic uncertainty; income inequality; GINI Index; Iran; Russia | ||
| References | ||
|
Afzali, M., Colak, G., & Fu, M. (2021). Economic uncertainty and corruption: Evidence from public and private firms. Journal of Financial Stability, 57, 100936, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100936
Albassam, M., Aslam, M., & Janjua, A. (2025). Illuminating the impact of economic policy uncertainty, renewable energy, and economic growth on environmental sustainability. Environmental Science Europe, 37, 101, doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-025-01148-z
Belotevogel, R., Imamoglu, E., Moriyama, K., & Sarr, B. (2022). Income inequality measures and economic growth channels. Journal of Macroeconomics, 72, 103413, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103413
Bontempi, M., Charemza, W., & Makarova, S. (2025). Economic uncertainty measures, experts and large language models. Journal of International Money and Finance, 157, 103369, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103369
Castelnuovo, E., & Tran, T. (2017). Google It Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty index for the United States and Australia. Economics Letters, 161, 149- 153.
Chikhale, N. (2023). The effects of uncertainty shocks: Implications of wealth inequality. , 154, 104412, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104412
Epo, B., Mvomo, F., Tabi, H., & Ondoa, H. (2024). Colonial status and income inequality in developing countries. World Development Perspectives, 36, 100634, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2024.100634
Goodarzi Farahani, Yazdan & Abbasi Nejad, Hossein (2023). Measuring the Effect of Economic Uncertainty Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables: A Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach. Stable Economy Journal, 4(3), 106–133. DOI: 10.22111/sedj.2023.44255.1277. [In Persian]
Haji Mali Mirzaei, Sadegh; Mahmoudzadeh, Mahmoud; Ghoveydel, Saleh; & Fath Abadi, Mehdi (2024). Government Spending Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity in Iran. Journal of Financial Economics, 1(66), 483–504. DOI: 10.30495/fed.2024.709383. [In Persian]
Hassani, Davoud; Mirfeyz, Falah; & Zamordian, Alireza (2022). The Impact of the Economic Uncertainty Index on the Financial System Health Stability. Razi Journal of Medical Sciences, 29(8), 199–205. [In Persian]
Jovanovic, B., & Ma, S. (2022). Uncertainty and growth disasters. Review of Economic Dynamics, 44, 33- 64.
Khalasi, Golnar & Pirayi, Khosrow (2016). The Relationship between Economic Growth and Income Inequality across Iranian Provinces. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 16(2), 155–171. DOI: 20.1001.1.17356768.1395.16.2.6.1. [In Persian]
Lu, S., Zeng, Y., Zhang, W., & Zhao, Y. (2025). Economic Policy Uncertainty and Intra-Industry Risk Spillovers: Evidence from China’s Non-Financial Sector. Journal of System Science and Complexity, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11424-025-4602-9
Muller, H., Blagov, B., Schmidt, T., Reiger, J., & Jentsch, C. (2025). The macroeconomic impact of asymmetric uncertainty shocks. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries. 31, e00410, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00410
Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan (2017). A Global Examination of the Resistance Economy Model: A Case Study of Russia and Iran. Strategic & Macro‑Policy Quarterly (Special Issue: Resistance Economy), 5, 45–62. DOI: 20.1001.1.23452544.1396.5.0.3.5 [In Persian]
Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan (2025). Foundations of Global Economic Studies (2nd ed.). NourElm Publishing: Tehran. [In Persian]
Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Iksi, Ebrahim Halil (2024). Trend‑Study of the Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Journal of Countries Studies, 2(2), 279–298. DOI: 10.22059/jcountst.2024.370813.1097 [In Persian]
Rezaei, Nader & Norouzi, Alireza (2019). Economic Uncertainty and Bank Lending Decisions. Investment Knowledge, 8(32), 315–329. [In Persian]
Samadi, Ali Hossein (2002). Identifying the Most Important Sources Increasing Income Inequality in Urban and Rural Areas of Iran: Decomposition of the Gini Coefficient (1991 and 1996). Journal of Economic Research & Planning, 7(2), 33–52. DOI: 20.1001.1.22519092.1381.7.2.2.4. [In Persian]
Sharafat Jahromi, Mohammad‑Naser & Taji, Zarirangin (2010). The Effect of Macroeconomic Policies on Income Distribution in Iran. Economics Quarterly (Modeling), 1(2), 1–29. [In Persian]
Szczygielski, J., Charteris, A., Bwanya, P., & Brzeszczynski, J. (2024). Google search trends and stock markets: Sentiment, attention or uncertainty? International Review of Financial Analysis, 91, 102549, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102549
Tang, S., & Cao, X. (2022). How economic uncertainty affect enterprises' strategic orientation. International Review of Economics & Finance, 10, 104127, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2025.104127
Tong, C., Huang, Z., Wang, T., & Zhang, C. (2023). The effects of economic uncertainty on financial volatility: A comprehensive investigation. Journal of Empirical Finance, 73, 369- 389.
| ||
|
Statistics Article View: 120 PDF Download: 146 |
||