1دانشجوی دکتری رشته مطالعات منطقه ای، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی.
2دانشیار روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
تاریخ دریافت: 04 آبان 1404،
تاریخ بازنگری: 08 آذر 1404،
تاریخ پذیرش: 29 آذر 1404
چکیده
در دو دهه اخیر، کشورهای شورای همکاری خلیج فارس با دگرگونیهای جمعیتی چشمگیری روبهرو شدهاند که ساختارهای اجتماعی و اقتصادی آنان را دگرگون ساخته و پیامدهای عمیقی بر معادلات امنیتی منطقه نهاده است. پرسش پژوهش آن است که رشد شتابان جمعیت، مهاجرت گسترده نیروی کار خارجی و تغییر ترکیب قومیفرهنگی چگونه به تهدیدهایی چون نارضایتی اجتماعی، گسترش جریانهای افراطی، کاهش نقش شهروندان بومی در بازار کار، بیثباتی اقتصادی و چالشهای هویتی منجر شده و در ادامه، سیاستها و ساختارهای امنیتی را در دو سطح ملی و منطقهای بازتعریف کردهاند. فرضیه پژوهش بر این مبناست که این تحولات جمعیتی، از رهگذر تشدید تهدیدها و فرآیند امنیتیسازی، دولتها را به بازنگری در سیاستها و نهادهای امنیتی واداشته است. بازنگریای که بیش از هر چیز در قالب اصلاح نظام کفالت، تغییر مقررات ویزا و اجرای برنامههای بومیسازی نمود یافته است. این اصلاحات از یکسو ابزاری برای مهار تهدیدهای داخلی و پاسداری از ثبات و هویت ملی محسوب میشوند و از سوی دیگر، زمینهساز شکلگیری الگوهای همگرایی امنیتی در سطح منطقهاند. هدف مقاله، واکاوی سازوکارهای علّی و نهادی است که از طریق آنها تحولات جمعیتی بر سیاستها و ساختارهای امنیتی اثر میگذارند و پیامدهای اجتماعی، فرهنگی و اقتصادی این دگرگونیها را آشکار میسازند. ضرورت پژوهش به دلیل خلأ موجود درباره پیوند میان جمعیت، تهدیدهای امنیتی و اصلاحات نهادی در خلیج فارس است و با رویکردی آمیخته، هم از دادههای آماری برای تحلیل روندهای کلان و هم از شواهد میدانی و یافتههای کیفی برای تبیین ابعاد اجتماعی و معنایی تحولات بهره میگیرد.
Demographic Dynamics and the Redefinition of Security Approaches in the PGCC
نویسندگان [English]
Vahid Afrasiaban1؛ Morteza Nourmohamadi2
1PhD candidate in Regional studies, Allameh Tabatabai University
2Associate Professor of International Relations, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]
Over the past two decades, PGCC states have undergone profound demographic transformations that have reshaped their social and economic structures while exerting significant influence on regional security. This study examines how rapid population growth, large-scale labor migration and shifts in ethno cultural composition have produced security challenges ranging from social discontent and the rise of extremist currents to the declining role of nationals in the labor market, economic instability and identity-based tensions and how these dynamics have redefined security policies and institutions at both national and regional levels. The central hypothesis is that demographic change, by heightening perceived threats, accelerating processes of securitization, has compelled governments to reformulate their security strategies and institutions. These reforms are most evident in the modification of the Kafala system, the revision of visa regulations, the implementation of nationalization programs. At one level, such measures serve to contain domestic threats and safeguard national stability and identity; at another, they lay the groundwork for emerging patterns of regional security convergence. The article’s primary aim is to analyze the causal and institutional mechanisms through which demographic shifts shape security policies and structures, while also highlighting the broader social, cultural and economic consequences of these transformations. Its significance lies in addressing a critical gap in scholarship on the nexus between demographic dynamics, security threats, institutional reform in the Persian Gulf. Methodologically, the study employs a mixed approach: statistical data trace macro-level trends, while field evidence and qualitative findings capture the social and interpretive dimensions of these developments.
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