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Scenario Planning for Syria's Post-Assad Future: Implications for Regional Order and International Security to 2030 | ||
| مطالعات راهبردی سیاست بین الملل | ||
| Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 18 July 2026 | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.22080/jpir.2026.30744.1533 | ||
| Authors | ||
| saeedeh Kouzehgari* 1; Mehran Abdi Goharchoghaei2 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor of the International Relations Department, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Master’s student in International Relations at the University of Lorestan. Lorestan, Iran | ||
| Receive Date: 28 December 2025, Revise Date: 16 May 2026, Accept Date: 18 May 2026 | ||
| Abstract | ||
| “Following the collapse of the previous political structure, what scenarios can be envisioned for Syria’s political-security order, and how would each affect the regional power architecture?” By identifying two critical uncertainties—the degree of central government cohesion and the level of foreign power cooperation/competition—four alternative worlds are delineated: 1) Afghanization (collapse of central authority and destructive foreign rivalry), 2) Federalization (managed power-sharing), 3) Partition (reverse Finlandization and absorption by neighbors), and 4) Formation of a strong centralized state (return of the Leviathan under the tutelage of emerging powers). The analysis shows that this political transition will produce cascading effects at both regional and international levels. Regionally, fragile federalization, the redrawing of the power map through partition, and destabilizing Afghanization each pose threats to the Axis of Resistance and to the security of neighboring states. Internationally, the power vacuum left by the collapse of the previous order drives great power rivalry toward new bloc formations, and even the centralized state scenario demands an imposed hegemony that is itself a source of tension. In this context, federalization—as the most likely path—will owe its sustainability to the willingness of external actors to curb proxy rivalries. Ultimately, the study demonstrates that Syria’s post-transition trajectory will be shaped not by a single deterministic path, but by the interplay of internal fragmentation and external power competition, making anticipatory scenario monitoring essential for navigating an era of deep strategic uncertainty. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Syrian Crisis; Schwartz Scenario Planning; Geopolitical Uncertainty; Balance of Power; Regional Order | ||
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