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Lale Arefi, Shahin, Bitarafan, Mahdi. (1406). A Technology-Maturity-Based Foresight Portfolio Framework for Smart Seismic Structures: Integrating CRITIC, SWARA-Based Weighting, Fuzzy VIKOR, Borda Analysis, and Monte Carlo Uncertainty Assessment. پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 3(3), 119-143. doi: 10.22080/ceas.2026.32049.1110
Shahin Lale Arefi; Mahdi Bitarafan. "A Technology-Maturity-Based Foresight Portfolio Framework for Smart Seismic Structures: Integrating CRITIC, SWARA-Based Weighting, Fuzzy VIKOR, Borda Analysis, and Monte Carlo Uncertainty Assessment". پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 3, 3, 1406, 119-143. doi: 10.22080/ceas.2026.32049.1110
Lale Arefi, Shahin, Bitarafan, Mahdi. (1406). 'A Technology-Maturity-Based Foresight Portfolio Framework for Smart Seismic Structures: Integrating CRITIC, SWARA-Based Weighting, Fuzzy VIKOR, Borda Analysis, and Monte Carlo Uncertainty Assessment', پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 3(3), pp. 119-143. doi: 10.22080/ceas.2026.32049.1110
Lale Arefi, Shahin, Bitarafan, Mahdi. A Technology-Maturity-Based Foresight Portfolio Framework for Smart Seismic Structures: Integrating CRITIC, SWARA-Based Weighting, Fuzzy VIKOR, Borda Analysis, and Monte Carlo Uncertainty Assessment. پژوهشنامه مدیریت اجرایی, 1406; 3(3): 119-143. doi: 10.22080/ceas.2026.32049.1110

A Technology-Maturity-Based Foresight Portfolio Framework for Smart Seismic Structures: Integrating CRITIC, SWARA-Based Weighting, Fuzzy VIKOR, Borda Analysis, and Monte Carlo Uncertainty Assessment

Civil Engineering and Applied Solutions
مقاله 8، دوره 3، شماره 3، مهر 2027، صفحه 119-143    اصل مقاله (1.02 M)
نوع مقاله: Original Article
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/ceas.2026.32049.1110
نویسندگان
Shahin Lale Arefi* 1؛ Mahdi Bitarafan2
1Department of Civil Engineering, Esfarayen University of Technology, Esfarayen, Iran
2International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran
تاریخ دریافت: 17 خرداد 1405،  تاریخ بازنگری: 01 مرداد 1405،  تاریخ پذیرش: 13 شهریور 1405 
چکیده
The rapid development of smart seismic technologies requires structured approaches for selecting foresight methods according to technology maturity. Existing studies mainly address the technical development or performance assessment of individual technologies, while limited attention has been given to maturity-sensitive foresight portfolio design. This study proposes a technology-maturity-based foresight portfolio framework for smart seismic structures. First, scientific and patent-based evidence is screened and coded. The CRITIC method is used to weight evidence indicators and construct weighted maturity profiles, after which technologies are assigned to four planning-oriented maturity/application stages using predefined profile-based classification rules: emerging/research-oriented, developing/technology-readiness, implementation-oriented, and recovery/resilience-oriented. Second, twelve valid expert questionnaires are used to evaluate decision criteria and foresight methods. The criteria are weighted through a SWARA-based procedure, and eight foresight methods are ranked using Fuzzy VIKOR. Third, the overall VIKOR ranking is complemented by a separate tied-rank Borda analysis based on experts’ stage-specific portfolio assessments to extract maturity-sensitive foresight portfolios. Robustness is examined using expert agreement and reliability checks, Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, VIKOR sensitivity analysis, and comparative validation with TOPSIS and PROMETHEE II. The results show that seismic resilience support is the most important criterion. Delphi and technology roadmapping form the most stable overall foresight core, while stage-specific portfolios vary across maturity contexts. The proposed framework supports maturity-sensitive foresight planning for resilient smart seismic infrastructure.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Smart seismic structures؛ Technology foresight؛ Foresight portfolio؛ SWARA-based weighting؛ Fuzzy VIKOR؛ Seismic resilience
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