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محاسبه شاخص واردات قاچاق و عوامل مؤثر بر آن در ایران به روش فازی | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| مقاله 3، دوره 10، شماره 20، آذر 1394، صفحه 3-3 اصل مقاله (784.26 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| امیر منصور طهرانچیان* 1؛ هدی علی مرادی2 | ||
| 1دانشیار دانشگاه مازندران | ||
| 2دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 07 آبان 1390، تاریخ بازنگری: 11 مرداد 1390، تاریخ پذیرش: 10 آذر 1392 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در مقاله ی حاضر به محاسبه شاخص واردات قاچاق و بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر آن در ایران(1350-1388) پرداخته میشود. برای این منظور با استفاده از روش فازی، 10 سناریو طراحی و در محیط برنامه نویسی MATLAB اجرا شدند. نتایج بدست آمده نشان داد که روند واردات قاچاق در سالهای مورد بررسی به رغم نوسانات عمده، در مجموع افزایشی بوده است. همچنین، براساس یافتههای این پژوهش در سالهای 1350-1366 شاخص نرخ متوسط تعرفه در مقایسه با سایر عوامل مورد بررسی بیشترین تأثیر را بر روند واردات قاچاق گذاشته است. همچنین، این پژوهش نشان داد که در برنامه اول و دوم توسعه نرخ تورم نسبت به سایر عوامل از اهمیت بیشتری در واردات قاچاق برخوردار است. براساس یافتههای این پژوهش در برنامهی سوم و چهارم توسعه بار مالیاتی از اهمیت بیشتری برخوردار بوده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| واردات قاچاق؛ اقتصاد ایران؛ منطق فازی؛ روش پولی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Estimation Import Smuggling and Its Determinants in Iran on Fuzzy Method | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In this paper the Smuggling imports & its determinants are calculated in Iran during the period from 1350-1388 For this purpose, with using a fuzzy method, 10 scenarios were designed and implemented in MATLAB programming environment. The results indicated that the smuggling imports during the period under consideration in spite of the large fluctuations, has been rising in total. Also, based on the findings for 1350-1366 the average tariff rate in comparison with other factors under consideration have a greatest impact on smuggling imports. Furthermore, this study showed that in the first & second development plan, inflation is more important than other factors in the smuggling imports. Based on the results, in the third & fourth development plan, the most important factor is tax burden. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Smuggling Import, Iranian Economy, fuzzy logic, Monetory Method | ||
| مراجع | ||
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