آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 28 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 426 |
| تعداد مقالات | 4,164 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 6,739,124 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 4,988,664 |
ارزش افزودة صنایع کارخانه‌ای و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای منتخب: کاربردی از الگوی PVAR | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| دوره 16، شماره 32، آذر 1400، صفحه 7-22 اصل مقاله (357.65 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/iejm.2022.22441.1885 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مانی موتمنی* 1؛ محمد عبدی سیّدکلایی2؛ سحر نصرنژاد3 | ||
| 1دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران | ||
| 2استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران | ||
| 3دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 14 مهر 1400، تاریخ بازنگری: 20 مهر 1400، تاریخ پذیرش: 11 دی 1400 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| ارزش افزودة ناشی از فعالیت صنایع کارخانه‌ای دارای پیامدها و آثار جانبی مثبتی بر اقتصاد ملّی است. بهبود بهره‌وری، افزایش سطح پیچیدگی اقتصاد و تقویت انباشت سرمایه از جملة این پیامدها است. از این رو در برخی مطالعات، نقش صنایع کارخانه‌ای به موتور رشد تعبیر شده است. از سوی دیگر، بهبود شرایط اقتصادی و درآمد سرانه معمولا موجب می‌شود که سهم مخارج خانوار از محصولات صنعتی و با فن‌آوری‌بالاتر بیشتر گردد. این مهم موجب افزایش تقاضای محصولات کارخانه‌ای و احتمالا موجب بیشتر شدن فعالیت صنایع کارخانه‌ای می‌شود. هدف اصلی این پژوهش بررسی رابطة متقابل بین ارزش افزودة ناشی از فعالیت صنایع کارخانه‌ای و رشد اقتصادی در بین کشورهای مختلف با استفاده از الگوی PVAR است. محدودیت وجود اطلاعات منسجم و متوالی، تعداد کشورهای نمونة پژوهش را به 21 کشور کاهش داده است. دورة زمانی داده‌ها از سال 1990 تا 2020 است. سهم صنایع کارخانه‌ای از کل تولید کشورهای منتخب، به‌طور متوسط 15 درصد و میانگین رشد اقتصادی در مجموع این کشورها حدود 2 درصد است. نتیجة مطالعه که پایداری آن نیز مورد تایید قرار گرفته است، وجود رابطة همزمان و متقابل بین دو متغیر اصلی تحقیق را رد نمی‌کند. در صورت بروز تکانة مثبت 10 درصدی در ارزش افزوده صنایع کارخانه‌ای، میانگین رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب این پژوهش پس از 7 سال 1 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت و در صورت بروز تکانة مثبت 10 درصدی در رشد اقتصادی، فعالیت صنایع کارخانه‌ای پس از 7 سال حدود 5/0 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. به‌عبارتی اثر صنایع کارخانه‌ای بر رشد اقتصادی بیشتر از اثری است که رشد اقتصادی بر فعالیت کارخانه‌ها می‌گذارد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| رشد اقتصادی؛ صنایع کارخانه‌ای؛ خودرگرسیون برداری تابلویی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Manufacturing Added Value and Economic Growth Nexus in Selected Countries | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mani Motameni1؛ Mohammad Abdi Seyyedkolaee2؛ Sahar Nasrnejad3 | ||
| 1Associated Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Mazanddaran, Babolsar, Iran. | ||
| 2Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Mazanddaran, Babolsar, Iran. | ||
| 3Post Graduate Student of Economics, University of Mazanddaran, Babolsar, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The value added of manufacturing activities has positive effects and side effects on the national economy. Improving productivity, increasing the complexity of economy and strengthening capital accumulation are among these consequences. Therefore, in some studies, the role of manufacturing has been interpreted as a growth engine. In addition, improving the economic conditions and per capita incomes usually increase the share of household expenditures in high-tech industrial products. This will increase the demand for factory products and possibly increase the activity of manufactures. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the value added induced by the activity of manufacturing industries and economic growth among different countries using PVAR model. The limitation of having a consistent set of data has reduced the number of sample countries to 21. The data belongs to the years 1990-2020. The average share of manufacturing in the total production of the selected countries is 15% and the average economic growth in these countries is about 2%. The result of the study, the stability of which has also been confirmed, does not rule out the existence of a simultaneous and reciprocal relationship between the two main variables of the research. In case of a positive 10% shock in the value added of manufacturing, the economic growth of the selected countries of this study will increase by 1% after 7 years and in case of a positive 10% shock in the economic growth, the activity of manufacturing will increase by about 0.5% after 7 years. In other words, the effect of manufacturing on the economic growth is greater than the effect of the economic growth on factory activity. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Economic growth, Manufacturing, Panel VAR | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Abrigo, M. R., & Love, I. (2016). Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata. The Stata Journal, 16(3), 778-804. Asayesh, H., & Jalili Kamju, P. (2020). Impact of entrepreneurship index and legatum index on selected islamic countries economic growth with the panel smooth transition regression. Macroeconomics Research Letter, 15(29), 261-290. (In Persian). Almosabbeh, I.A. & Almoree, M.A. (2018), The relationship between manufacturing production and economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 45 No. 4, 674-690. Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. Baumol, W.J. (1967). Macro-economics of unbalanced growth: the anatomyof urban crises. American Economic Review, 57 (3), 415–426. Behun, M., Gavurova, B., Tkacova, A., & Kotaskova, A. (2018). The impact of the manufacturing industry on the economic cycle of European Union countries. Journal of competitiveness, 10(1), 23-38. Budiono, H. D. S., Nurcahyo, R., & Habiburrahman, M. (2021). Relationship between manufacturing complexity, strategy, and performance of manufacturing industries in Indonesia. Heliyon, 7(6), e07225. Darvishi, B., & Asgari, H. (2006). The analysis of comparative advantage in some of newly industrialized countries of south-east of Asia and comparing it with Iran. Economics Research, 6(23), 263-297. (In Persian). Emami, K., & Adibpoor, M. (2010). Industrial export and industrial sector growth in Iran. Economical Modeling, 4(11), 145-160. (In Persian). Fattahi, S., & Rezaee, E. (2015). Export of different classifications of technology on the growth of Iranian manufacturing Industry. Qjerp, 23 (74), 95-116. (In Persian). Falvey, R. E., & Gemmell, N. (1996). Are services income-elastic? Some new evidence. Review of Income and Wealth, 42(3), 257-269. Fei, J. C., & Ranis, G. (1964). Development of the Labor Surplus Economy: Theory and Policy. Irwin, Homewood, IL. Gabriel, L. F., & de Santana Ribeiro, L. C. (2019). Economic growth and manufacturing: An analysis using Panel VAR and intersectoral linkages. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 49, 43-61. Iscan, T. (2010). How much can Engel’s law and Baumol’s disease explain the rise of service employment in the United States?. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 10(1), 259-284. Jia, F., Ma, X., Xu, X., & Xie, L. (2020). The differential role of manufacturing and non-manufacturing TFP growth in economic growth. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 52, 174-183. Kaldor, N. (1967). Strategic Factors in Economic Development. Cornell Uni-versity Press, Ithaca, NY. Kaldor, N. (1966). Marginal productivity and the macro-economic theories of distribution: comment on Samuelson and Modigliani. The Review of Economic Studies, 33(4), 309-319. Karami, M., Elahinia, N., & Karami, S. (2019). The Effect of Manufacturing Value Added on Economic Growth: Emprical Eviddence from Europ. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 8(2), 133-147. Libanio, G., & Moro, S. (2006, December). Manufacturing industry and economic growth in Latin America: A Kaldorian approach. In Second Annual Conference for Development and Change. Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis. Springer Science & Business Media. Motameni, M., Zaroki. S., & Amiri, B. (2016). The role of human capital on the wage-productivity nexus in Iranian manufacturing industries. Economic Growth and Development Research, 6(23), 44-33. (In Persian). Syrquin, M. (1984). Resource reallocation and productivity growth. In Economic structure and performance, 1(2), 75-101. Su, D., & Yao, Y. (2017). Manufacturing as the key engine of economic growth for middle-income economies. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 22(1), 47-70. Yousefi, M., & Elahe Mohammadi, E. (2013). A quantitative estimation of the sources of industrial growth in manufacturing industries of Iran. Economics Research, 13(50), 1-15. (In Persian). Zarenejad, M., Zaroki, S., & Gorji, M. B. (2021). Analyzing the Impact of EDB on Employment in Agriculture, Industry and Services Sectors (case study: 31 provinces of Iran). Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 52(2), 423-440. (In Persian). Zhao, J., & Tang, J. (2018). Industrial structure change and economic growth: A China-Russia comparison. China Economic Review, 47, 219-233. Zobeiri, H. (2021). The effect of demographic transition on GDP per capita in resource-rich countries: The case of Iran. Macroeconomics Research Letter, 15(30), 13-33. (In Persian). | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 410 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 424 |
||