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تأثیر هزینههای تأمین اجتماعی در همگرایی رفاه اجتماعی در استانهای ایران | ||
پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
دوره 16، شماره 32، آذر 1400، صفحه 117-145 اصل مقاله (810.08 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/iejm.2023.23976.1929 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
علی صفائی1؛ پروانه سلاطین* 2؛ صالح قویدل3؛ مسعود صوفی مجید پور4 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه | ||
2استایار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران. | ||
3دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران. | ||
4استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران. | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 30 مرداد 1401، تاریخ بازنگری: 29 شهریور 1401، تاریخ پذیرش: 10 مهر 1401 | ||
چکیده | ||
رفاه اجتماعی مجموعهای از قوانین، مقررات، برنامهها و سیاستهای رفاهی است که در قالب نمادها و سازمانهای اجتماعی و با توجه به مفاهیم مربوط به رفاه اجتماعی مانند تأمین اجتماعی، بیمههای اجتماعی، حمایت اجتماعی، مددکاری اجتماعی، خدمات اجتماعی، بهزیستی با هدایت و حمایت دولت و مشارکت عموم مردم، تحقق مییابد تا سعادت انسان در جامعه دستیافتنی شود. هدف اصلی مقاله بررسی تأثیر هزینههای تأمین اجتماعی در همگرایی رفاه اجتماعی استانهای ایران است. نتایج برآورد مدلها با استفاده از اقتصادسنجی فضایی در دوره زمانی 1385-1399 نشان داد که هزینههای تأمین اجتماعی تأثیر مثبت و معناداری در همگرایی رفاه اجتماعی در استانهای کشور دارد. اثر مثبت مستقیم و غیرمستقیم هزینههای تأمین اجتماعی بدین معناست که افزایش هزینههای تأمین اجتماعی نهتنها همگرایی رفاه اجتماعی در همه استانها را بهبود بخشیده است؛ بلکه آثار سرریز آن، بهطور متوسط، سبب بهتر شدن همگرایی رفاه اجتماعی در استانهای مجاور شده است. همچنین، سرعت همگرایی مطلق 053/0 و در مدلهای شرطی، بهترتیب، 054/0، 059/0 برآورد شد. این نتایج نشان میدهد سرعت همگرایی بتای شرطی برآوردی با درنظرگرفتن هزینههای تأمین اجتماعی بیشتر است. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که شاخص فلاکت و اندازه دولت، تاثیر منفی و معنادار و ضریب نفوذ اینترنت و سرمایه انسانی تاثیر مثبت و معناداری در همگرایی رفاه اجتماعی دارد. بررسی آثار سرریزها در سال 1399 نشان داد که هر استان بر خودش بیشترین میزان ضریب اثر مستقیم را دارد و سپس، بیشترین تأثیر را بر استانهای مجاور دارد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تامین اجتماعی؛ همگرایی؛ رفاه اجتماعی؛ اقتصادسنجی فضایی؛ استانهای ایران | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
The Impact of Social Security Expenditures on Convergence of Social Welfare in Provinces of Iran | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
ali safai1؛ parvaneh Salatin2؛ Saleh Ghavidel3؛ masood Soufi Majidpoor4 | ||
1PhD Student, Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firuzkuh, Iran. | ||
2Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firuzkuh, Iran. | ||
3Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firuzkuh, Iran. | ||
4Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firuzkuh, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
This study aimed to investigate the effect of social security expenditure on the convergence of social welfare in provinces of Iran. Results of estimating models, using Spatial Econometrics, revealed that social security expenditure has a positive and significant effect on the convergence of social welfare in provinces of Iran during the period 2006-2020. Moreover, findings demonstrated that direct and indirect effect of social security expenditure is also positive, in the sense that the increases in social security expenditure has not only improved the convergence of social welfare in all provinces, but its spillover effects have also improved the convergence of social welfare in neighboring provinces on average. Besides, the Absolute Convergence Rate was 0.053 and in the conditional models, its’ values were estimated to be 0.054 and 0.059, respectively. These findings show that the estimated Conditional Beta-Convergence Rate is higher while considering social security expenditures. Additionally, results revealed that the Misery Index and the Government Size have a negative and significant effect, while the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Human Capital have a positive and significant effect on the convergence of social welfare. Finally, an estimation of the Spatial Spillover Effects of social security expenditures in 2019 showed that each one of the provinces has the highest direct effect coefficient on itself, and then has the highest effect on neighboring provinces. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
: Convergence, Social Welfare, Spatial Econometrics, Social Security, Provinces of Iran | ||
مراجع | ||
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