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اثرات آزادسازی تجاری در فعالیت‌های بخش صنعت ایران و اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا: رهیافت GTAP | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 17، شماره 33، فروردین 1401، صفحه 7-34 اصل مقاله (527.04 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/iejm.2023.21114.1831 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مهدی نجاتی* 1؛ مجتبی بهمنی2؛ سید عبدالمجید جلایی اسفندآبادی3؛ یاسر بلاغی اینالو4 | ||
| 1دانشیار بخش اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار، بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران | ||
| 3استاد، بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران | ||
| 4دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 14 اسفند 1399، تاریخ بازنگری: 25 مرداد 1400، تاریخ پذیرش: 01 شهریور 1400 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| بخش صنعت، نقش مهمی در ایجاد ارزش‌افزوده و اشتغال‌زایی ایفا می‌کند، بنابراین، ارزیابی اثرات آزادسازی تجاری در بخش صنعت از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است، در همین راستا، در این پژوهش اثرات کاهش نرخ‌های تعرفه‌ی وارداتی رشته فعالیت‌های بخش صنعت ایران و اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا بر رفاه و تراز تجاری، بر اساس الگوی پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی(GTAP) و نسخه 10 پایگاه داده‌های آن، طی دو سناریو (کاهش 25 درصدی و کاهش 50 درصدی نرخ‌های تعرفه) با بسته نرمافزاری GEMPACK تحلیل شده است. تجارت و تخصص‌گرایی باعث تغییراتی در ساختار فعالیت‌های تولیدی و در نتیجه تغییر در دستمزد و اجاره‌های عوامل تولید می‌شود، اثر کل ناشی از تغییر سیاست‌های تجاری با شاخص رفاه اقتصادی سنجیده می‌شود. علاوه بر عوامل ذکر شده، حجم تجارت اولیه و نرخ‌های تعرفه‌ی اولیه نیز می‌تواند بر میزان رفاه مؤثر باشد، با توجه به اینکه، نرخ تعرفه‌ی اعمال شده از طرف ایران بالاتر از اوراسیا می‌باشد این امر میتتواند در کاهش رفاه ایران مؤثر باشد. برخی از فعالیت‌ها در سناریو‌های مختلف اثرگذاری متفاوتی دارند و لازم است به‌طور دقیق شناسایی شوند و به‌منظور برقراری توازن در رفاه پیشنهاد می‌شود تغییرات نرخ تعرفه با دقت بالایی انجام شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| آزادسازی تجاری؛ اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا؛ پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی(GTAP)؛ بخش صنعت؛ تعرفه | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Effects of Trade Liberalization on the Industrial Sector of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union Using a Multi-Regional GTAP Approach | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mehdi Nejati1؛ Mojtaba Bahmani2؛ Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalaee3؛ yaser balaghi enalou4 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman | ||
| 2Assistant Professor in department of economics, Shahid Bahonar university | ||
| 3Professor in department of economics, Shahid Bahonar university | ||
| 4PhD Candidate in Economics, Shahid Bahonar University | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The industrial sector plays an important role in creating job opportunities. Therefore, evaluating the effects of trade liberalization on the industrial sector is of particular importance. In this regard, this study investigated the effects of reducing importation tariff rates in the industrial sector of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on welfare and trade balance. These effects were analyzed based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and version 10 of its database, in two scenarios (25% reduction and 50% reduction of tariff rates) using the GEMPACK software. Trade and specialization cause changes in the structure of production activities and consequently changes in wages and rents of production factors. Thus, the total effect of changing trade policies on the economic welfare index is measured. In addition to the above-noted factors, the volume of initial trade and initial tariff rates can affect the welfare rate. Considering that the tariff rate imposed by Iran is higher than Eurasia, the level of welfare is lower in Iran. Since some activities have various effects in different scenarios, they should be investigated closely to balance welfare. Tariff rate changes are also recommended to be done with high accuracy. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Trade Liberalization, Eurasian Economic Union, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Model, Industry Sector, Tariff | ||
| مراجع | ||
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