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مدلسازی وضعیت خدمات درمانی شهر تبریز با تأکید بر تغییرات ساختار سنی | ||
| مطالعات ساختار و کارکرد شهری | ||
| دوره 10، شماره 36، مهر 1402، صفحه 205-231 اصل مقاله (832.16 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقالات مستقل پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/usfs.2023.25061.2341 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فیروز جعفری* 1؛ اکبر اصغری زمانی2؛ اسماعیل سلیمانی راد3 | ||
| 1استادیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران | ||
| 3دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 07 اسفند 1401، تاریخ بازنگری: 23 اردیبهشت 1402، تاریخ پذیرش: 08 مهر 1402 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| طبق پیش‌بینی‌های سازمان بهداشت جهانی در آینده شاهد رشد جمعیت سالمندان خواهیم بود که مستلزم برنامه‌ریزی و سیاست‌گذاری است. فرایند تغییر ساختار سنی جمعیتی پدیدۀ سالمندی را در جوامع به دنبال خواهد داشت. در این راستا برنامه‌ریزی برای کالبد و ساختار شهر جز با در نظر گرفتن ساختار جمعیتی در حال تغییر در آینده قطعاً با شکست مواجه خواهد شد. در همین راستا، هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی وضعیت خدمات درمانی شهر تبریز با تأکید بر تغییرات ساختار سنی و پیش‌بینی آن تا سال 1430 است. روش این پژوهش، توصیفی و از نوع همبستگی و از نظر شیوۀ جمع‌آوری اطلاعات پیمایشی است. جامعۀ پژوهش حاضر، بیماران بستری‌شده سال 1395 شهر تبریز است که 68821 نفر از بیماران موردبررسی قرارگرفته‌اند. برای پیش‌بینی جمعیت نیز، ابتدا داده‌های جمعیتی سال‌های 1385 تا 1395 مبنای پیش‌بینی جمعیتی قرارگرفته و سپس برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها، از رویکرد مبتنی بر سیستم‌های پویا وضعیت نیاز به خدمات درمانی تا بازه 1430 با یک دید سیستمی مورد ارزیابی قرارگرفته است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که تا سال 1430 می‌بایست 4948 تخت بیمارستانی و 2418 پرستار اضافه گردد تا شهر تبریز نسبت به شرایط کنونی، وضعیت نرمالی داشته باشد. پیش‌بینی‌ها نشان می‌دهد که مشکل سالخوردگی جمعیت، سیستم مراقبت‌های بهداشتی شهر تبریز را بدون تردید تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد و برای فراهم شدن خدمات درمانی برای جمعیت سالمند طی 30 سال آینده ، اماکن درمانی به‌طور قابل‌توجهی باید افزایش یابد و این مهم به یک برنامه‌ریزی جامع نیاز دارد. در انتهای مقاله توصیه‌هایی برای رسیدن به وضعیت مناسب در آینده داده شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| سالمندی؛ خدمات درمانی؛ بیمارستان؛ تبریز | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Modeling the Changes in the Population Age Structure with an Emphasis on Medical Services’ State (Case Study: Tabriz City) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| firouz jafari1؛ Akbar Asghari Zamani2؛ esmaeil soleimanirad3 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran | ||
| 3Ph.D. student in Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| According to the forecasts of the World Health Organization, in the future, there will be a growth in the elderly population, which requires planning and policies. The process of changing the age structure of the population will lead to the phenomenon of aging in societies. In this regard, planning for the body and structure of the city without considering the changing demographic structure in the future will definitely fail. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate the changes in the age structure of the population of Tabriz city, emphasizing the health services and its forecast until 2051. This research follows a descriptive-correlational approach and is a survey in terms of the method of data collection. The population of the present study is 68821 patients who were presented by Tabriz hospitals. First, the demographic data of the two decades of 2006 to 2016 were used as the basis for population forecasting, and then for analyzing the data, the dynamic systems-based approach was used to assess the need for medical services up to 1430 with a systemic view. The results of the research showed that by 2051, a total of 4948 hospital beds and 2418 nurses should be added to bring Tabriz to a normal state compared to the current conditions of the city. Predictions show that the problem of the aging population will undoubtedly affect the health care system of Tabriz city, and to provide medical services for the elderly population in the next 30 years, medical facilities must be increased significantly, and this requires comprehensive planning. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Elderly, medical services, hospital, Tabriz | ||
| مراجع | ||
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