آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 29 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 431 |
| تعداد مقالات | 4,216 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 6,796,947 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 5,043,961 |
تعیین سناریوی بهینه کاهش آثار حذف ارز ترجیحی بر رفاه و درآمد عوامل تولید؛ رهیافت مدل تعادل عمومی RDCGE | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 18، شماره 37، دی 1402، صفحه 7-31 اصل مقاله (610.15 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/iejm.2024.26279.2011 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| سیدمحمد فهیمی فرد* | ||
| استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 16 آبان 1402، تاریخ بازنگری: 10 دی 1402، تاریخ پذیرش: 12 دی 1402 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| بر اساس داده‌های شاخص قیمت مصرف‌کننده مرکز آمار ایران، پس از اجرای سیاست حذف ارز ترجیحی از کالاهای اساسی (مردمی‌سازی یارانه‌ها)، میانگین تورم نقطه‌به‌نقطه (نسبت به ماه مشابه سال قبل) گروه‌های عمده غذایی از خرداد 1401 تا آبان 1402، 1/86 درصد افزایش یافته است. حال، سؤال اساسی این است که در چه‌صورت اجرای سیاست مذکور، منجر به کاهش اثرات منفی بر درآمد عوامل تولید و رفاه خواهد شد؟ براین اساس، در پژوهش حاضر اثر 18 سناریو، در قالب نوع حذف ارز ترجیحی از کالاهای اساسی (یکباره، طی سه و طی پنج سال)، نوع جبران حمایتی (نقدی یا کالایی) و سطح پوشش حمایتی (تمامی دهک‌ها، دهک‌های پائین و متوسط یا تنها دهک‌های پائین درآمدی)، بر رفاه و درآمد عوامل تولید شبیه‌سازی شد. همچنین، داده‌های مورد نیاز از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی و جدول داده- ستانده بانک مرکزی گردآوری و جهت تجزیه‌وتحلیل آن‌ها از مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر پویای بازگشتی (RDCGE) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد بهترین سناریو، سناریوی حذف ارز ترجیحی طی دوره پنج ساله، جبران حمایتی نقدی و پوشش حمایتی از دهک‌های پائین و متوسط درآمدی می‌باشد. بدین مفهوم که اگر دولت حذف ارز ترجیحی را به‌تدریج طی دوره پنج ساله انجام داده و بصورت نقدی از دهک‌های پائین و متوسط درآمدی حمایت کند، اثرات منفی شوک آن بر درآمد عوامل تولید و رفاه خنثی شده و سپس مثبت می‌شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| رفاه کل؛ درآمد عوامل تولید؛ حذف ارز ترجیحی؛ دهک‌های درآمدی؛ مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه پویای بازگشتی (RDCGE) | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Determining Optimal Scenario to Reduce the Effects of Removing Discounted Currency on Welfare and Income of Production Factors; RDCGE General Equilibrium Model Approach | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Seyed Mohammad Fahimifard | ||
| Assistance Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Planning, Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| According to the data of the consumer price index of the Iran Statistics Center, after implementing the policy of removing discounted currency from basic goods (popularization of subsidies), the average point-to-point inflation (compared to the same month of the previous year) of the major food group has increased by 86.1 percent from May 2022 to November 2023. Now, the main question is, how will implementing the mentioned policy reduce the negative effects on the income of production and welfare factors? Therefore, in the current research, the results of the simulation of 18 scenarios were examined in the form of the type of removal of preferred currency from essential goods, the type of protective compensation, and the level of protective coverage of income deciles on the welfare and income of production factors. For this purpose, the research data was collected from the social accounting matrix and input-output table of the Central Bank of Iran. A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (RDCGE) was also used to analyze the data. The results showed that among the examined scenarios, the best scenario is removing the preferred currency within five years, as well as cash compensation and protection coverage for the low- and middle-income deciles. In this sense, if the government removes the preferred currency gradually over five years and supports the low- and middle-income deciles in cash, the negative effects caused by the shock on the income of the factors of production and welfare will be neutralized and then become positive. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Total welfare, income of production factors, removing of discounted currency, income deciles, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE) model | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Adekunle, C. P., Akinbode, S. O., Shittu, A. M., & Momoh, S. (2020). Food price changes and farm households’ welfare in Nigeria: Direct and indirect approach. Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1), 409-425. Adeyonu, A. G., Shittu, A. M., Kehinde, M. O., & Adekunle, C. P. (2021). Farm Households’ Demand Response to Escalating Food Prices in Nigeria. Journal of Applied Economics, 24(1), 555-576. Alexander, S. S. (1952). Effects of a devaluation on a trade balance. Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, 2(2), 263 -278. Allo, A. G., Satriawan, E., & Arsyad, L. (2018). The impact of rising food prices on farmers welfare in Indonesia. Journal of Indonesian Economy & Business, 33(3). Ashktorab, N., & Nematollahi, Z. (2019). The Effects of Increasing Food Commodities Prices on the Welfare and Poverty of Iranian Urban Households. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 32(4), 287-298. (In Persian) Burfisher, M. E. (2017). Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models, 2nd edition, Cambridge University Press. Decaluwé, B., Lemelin, A., Maisonnave, H., & Robichaud. V. (2013). «Pep-1-t», Standard PEP model: single-country, recursive dynamic version, Politique Économique et Pauvreté/Poverty and Economic Policy Network. Université Laval, Québec. Faharuddin, F., Yamin, M., Mulyana, A., & Yunita, Y. (2022). Impact of food price increases on poverty in Indonesia: empirical evidence from cross-sectional data. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 30(2), 126-142. Fahimifard, S. M., Rafaati, M., & Gilanpour, O. (2022). Investigating the Effects of Removing the Preferred Exchange Rate of Agricultural Inputs on Agriculture Sector of Iran: RDCGE Approach. Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(2), 201-235. (In Persian) Galloway, T. (2017), Canada’s northern food subsidy Nutrition North Canada: a comprehensive program evaluation, International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 76(1). Hosoe, N., Gasawa, K., & Hashimoto, H. (2010). Textbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Programming and Simulations, Palgrave Macmillan UK. Hovhannisyan, V., & Shanoyan, A. (2020). An empirical analysis of the welfare consequences of rising food prices in urban China: The EASI approach. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 42(4), 796-814. Iyke, B. N., & Ho, S. Y. (2020). Consumption and exchange rate uncertainty: Evidence from selected Asian countries. The World Economy, 43(9), 2437 -62. Kazemi, S. A., & Jalili Bolhassani, H. (2022). Investigating the volume of subsidies in Iran; Its economic and security dimensions. Defense Economics, 6(22), 133-153. (In Persian) Löfgren, H., Harris, R. L., & Robinson, S. (2001). A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS, TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Mohinizadeh, M., Yavari, K., Jalai, S. A. M., & Jafarzadeh, B. (2018). The impact of structural changes on economic welfare in Iran, the approach of computable general equilibrium models. Financial Economics Quarterly, 13(48), 189-167. (In Persian) Nejabat, E., Amirkhani, A., Mooghali, A., & Darvish, H. (2022). Identifying and explaining the characteristics of "Good Subsidy", Social Welfare Quarterly, 21(83), 167-228. (In Persian) Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1998). Risk and exchange rates. NBER Working Papers No. w6694, National Bureau of Economic Research. Omar, D. A. (2021). Food subsidy reform: case of Egypt, Thesis, the American University in Cairo, AUC Knowledge Fountain. Organizations making targeted subsidies, (2022). Available at: https://www.hadafmandi.ir. (In Persian) Roustaei Tale Jerdi, S. (2023). Examining the plan to reform the bread subsidy payment system by the Iranian government in 2022, Working paper of Iran Islamic Paliament Research Center, No. 18606. Sadigh Mohammadi, M., Sarlak, A., Najafizadeh, S. A., & Hassanzadeh, M. (2021). The Effect of Exchange Rate Shocks on Households Welfare in Iran: A CGE Approach. Economic Growth and Development Research, 11(42), 81-108. (In Persian) Salem, A. A., Azizkhani, M., & Arab Yarmohamadi, J. (2022). The Effect of Eliminating the Preferential Exchange Rate of Basic Foodstuffs on Income Distribution in Urban Areas of Iran Based on Micro Data Simulation Using EASI Model. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 57(1), 125-156. (In Persian) Sayadi, M., Shakeri, A., Mohammadi, T., & Bahrami, J. (2016). Stochastic Shocks and Oil Revenue Management in Iran; A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach. Economics Research, 16(61), 33-80. (In Persian) Shabanzadeh Khoshrody, M., Gilanpour, O., Javdan, E., & Rafaati, M. (2022). The Effect of Preferred Currency Subsidies Policy on Food Consumption in Urban Areas of Iran. Economic Research, 22(3),129-155. (In Persian) Sohbati, Z., KhosraviNejad, A. A., KhodadadKashi, F. (2013). An Evaluation of Rise in Food Price on Welfare of Urban Households in Iran. Economic Strategy, 2(4), 73-93. (In Persian) Soltani, A., & Heydari Monavar, A. (2020). Economic and social effects of targeted subsidies scheme on household welfare level (Tabriz City Case Study. Journal of Economic & Developmental Sociology, 9(2), 175-205. (In Persian) Statistical Center of Iran (2023), Available at: https://www.amar.org.ir/.(In Persian) Wing, I. S., & Balistreri, E. J. (2018). Computable General Equilibrium Models for Policy Evaluation and Economic Consequence Analysis, Oxford University Press. Woldie, G. A., & Siddig, K. (2019). Macroeconomic and Distributional Impacts of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Ethiopia: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach. Heliyon, 5(12), 1-9. Yazdani, M. (2018). Monetary Policies, Exchange Rate Pass-through and Prices in Asian Economies: A Long and Short-run Analysis. Iranian Economic Review, 22(4), 1034-1064. Zhao, Y. (2020). The influence and impact of the exchange rate on the economy. In E3S Web of Conferences (Vol. 214, p. 03007). EDP Sciences.
| ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 122 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 129 |
||