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نقش ریسک سیستماتیک در رابطه بین توسعه مالی و توسعه تکنولوژی انرژی های تجدیدپذیر: مقایسه کشورهای درحال توسعه نفتی و توسعه یافته نفتی | ||
| پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 18، شماره 39، بهمن 1402، صفحه 99-134 اصل مقاله (955.61 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/iejm.2024.26479.2027 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مجید آقایی* ؛ محمد سلمان | ||
| دانشگاه مازندران | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 02 دی 1402، تاریخ بازنگری: 27 دی 1402، تاریخ پذیرش: 29 دی 1402 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| باتوجه به نقش انرژی های تجدیدپذیر در فرآیند توسعه پایدار کشورها و اهمیت ثبات اقتصادی و سیاسی در تامین مالی پروژه های تجدیدپذیر، پژوهش حاضر با به کارگیری مدل رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانل (PSTR) در قالب چندین مدل جداگانه، به بررسی نقش ریسک سیستماتیک (شامل ریسک سیاسی، اقتصادی و مالی ) بر رابطه بین توسعه مالی (توسعه بازار سهام و توسعه بخش بانکی) و توسعه تکنولوژی انرژی های تجدیدپذیر (RET) در کشورهای نفتی (شامل کشورهای در حال توسعه نفتی و توسعه یافته نفتی) طی دوره زمانی 2000 تا 2021 می پردازد. در این پژوهش با تکیه بر آزمون‌های کشف رفتار غیرخطی، وجود رابطه غیرخطی بین توسعه مالی و توسعه تکنولوژی انرژی های تجدیدپذیر تایید شد، متغیر ریسک سیستماتیک به عنوان متغیر انتقال مناسب انتخاب گردید و مدل غیرخطی رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانل با تابع انتقال لاجستیک دو رژیمی با یک‌بار انتقال به عنوان الگوی پیشنهادی برای این رابطه در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج کلی حاصل از برآورد مدل ها نشان می دهد که رابطه بین توسعه مالی و توسعه تکنولوژی انرژی های تجدیدپذیر بسته به سطح ریسک سیستماتیک موجود در کشورها، متفاوت می باشد، بدین صورت که افزایش شاخص عددی ریسک از مقدار آستانه ای خود و ورود به رژیم دوم که بیانگر کاهش سطح ریسک در کشورها می باشد، تاثیرگذاری مثبت توسعه مالی بر توسعه تکنولوژی انرژی های تجدیدپذیر را بیشتر می نماید. همچنین یافته ها بیانگر این است که در رژیم اول و در سطوح بالای ریسک (قبل از حد آستانه)، بخش بانکی در مقایسه با بازار سرمایه، تاثیر بیشتری بر توسعه RET در کشورهای نفتی داشته است، اما در رژیم دوم که سطح ریسک پایین تر است (بعد از حد آستانه)، علاوه بر بخش بانکی، توسعه بازار سرمایه نیز تاثیر مثبت بر توسعه RET داشته است. همچنین بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده شاخص های مختلف توسعه مالی و ریسک تاثیر متفاوتی بر توسعه RET در کشورهای در حال توسعه و توسعه یافته نفتی دارند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| توسعه تکنولوژی انرژی های تجدیدپذیر؛ توسعه مالی؛ مدل رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانل(PSTR)؛ کشورهای نفتی؛ ریسک سیستماتیک | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Role of Systematic Risk in the Financial Development and Renewable Energy Technology Development Nexus: A Comparison of Developing and Developed Oil-Producing Countries | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| majid Aghaei؛ mohammad salman | ||
| Department of economic, university of Mazandaran, Passdaran Street, Babolsar, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Considering the role of renewable energy sources in the sustainable development process of countries and the significance of economic and political stability in financing renewable energy projects, this research utilizes the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model in various separate models to investigate the impact of systematic risk (including political, economic, and financial risks) on the relationship between financial development (stock market development and banking sector development) and the development of renewable energy technologies (RET) in oil-producing countries (including developing and developed oil-producing countries) during the period from 2000 to 2021. Using nonlinear behavior detection tests, the existence of a nonlinear relationship between financial development and the development of renewable energy technologies was confirmed. The systematic risk variable was chosen as an appropriate transition variable, and a nonlinear panel regression model with a two-regime logistic transition function with a one-time transition was considered the proposed pattern for this relationship. The overall results of the model estimations indicate that the relationship between financial development and the development of renewable energy technologies varies depending on the level of systematic risk in countries. An increase in the numerical index of risk from its threshold value and entry into the second regime, indicating a reduction in risk levels in countries, enhances the positive impact of financial development on the development of renewable energy technologies. The findings also suggest that in the first regime and at higher risk levels (before the threshold), the banking sector, compared to the capital market, has a greater impact on the development of RET in oil-producing countries. However, in the second regime, where the risk level is lower (after the threshold), the banking sector and the capital market positively impact the development of RET. Additionally, the results show that different indicators of financial development and risk have varying effects on the development of RET in developing and developed oil-producing countries. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Renewable Energy Technology Development, Financial Development, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, Systematic Risk, Oil-Dependent Countries | ||
| مراجع | ||
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