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تغییرپذیری مکانی - زمانی شاخص اقلیم گردشگری سواحل جنوب ایران | ||
برنامه ریزی و توسعه گردشگری | ||
دوره 12، شماره 44، اردیبهشت 1402، صفحه 185-215 اصل مقاله (2.31 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: علمی-پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/jtpd.2023.24550.3751 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
زینب پاهنگ1؛ محسن حمیدیان پور* 2؛ فائزه شجاع3 | ||
1دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان | ||
2دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، دانشگده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی | ||
3دانشگاه تهران، دانشکده جغرافیا | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 10 مهر 1401، تاریخ بازنگری: 02 آذر 1401، تاریخ پذیرش: 25 بهمن 1401 | ||
چکیده | ||
زمینه و هدف: گردشگری به عنوان یکی از بخشهای اصلی اقتصاد جهانی، صنعتی بسیار حساس به اقلیم و تغییرات وابسته به آن است. هدف پژوهش حاضر واکاوی تغییرات مکانی و زمانی شاخص اقلیم گردشگری TCI در کرانههای جنوبی ایران میباشد. روششناسی: برای رسیدن به هدف مطالعه پارامترهای اقلیمی مورد نیاز شاخص TCI برای 14 ایستگاه سینوپتیک واقع در نوار ساحلی جنوب ایران طی دورة زمانی 25 ساله (2019-1995) از سازمان هواشناسی کشور دریافت گردید؛ سپس مقادیر شاخص در یک مقیاس ماهانه به تفکیک ایستگاهها محاسبه شد تا از این طریق مناطق مطلوب گردشگری در ماههای مختلف سال مشخص شود. در ادامه جهت بررسی رفتار زمانی شاخص، روند متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش و همچنین شاخص TCI در سه مقصد مهم گردشگری با استفاده از آزمونهای ناپارمتریک من-کندال و روش نوین ITA ارزیابی شد. یافتهها: نتایج نشان داد مناسبترین زمانهای گردشگری در سواحل دریای عمان ماههای نوامبر، دسامبر و مارس و در سواحل خلیج فارس دسامبر و ژانویه است، در این بین دسامبر از مطلوبترین شرایط اقلیم گردشگری برخوردار بوده و همة ایستگاههای واقع در سواحل جنوب ایران در این زمان در طبقة عالی شاخص TCI قرار میگیرند. نتایج آزمون تحلیل روند نیز حاکی از این است که رفتار شاخص TCI متأثر از تغییرات افزایشی دما و کاهشی بارش در محدودة مورد مطالعه میباشد؛ بهطوریکه برمبنای روش نوین Sen، شاخص TCI در بوشهر طی 4 ماه ژانویه، فوریه، مارس و دسامبر در طبقات خوب، خیلی خوب، عالی و ایدهآل دارای روند افزایشی است. این شرایط در کیش تنها در ژانویه مشاهده میشود اما در چابهار شیب روند در ماه دسامبر و محدودة خوب، خیلی خوب و عالی مثبت بوده و طبقة ایدهآل شاخص روند کاهشی دارد. نتیجهگیری و پیشنهادات: در مجموع میتوان گفت: براساس میانگین دورة آماری 2019-1995، مطابق الگوی فضایی شاخص TCI از اواخر پاییز تا اواسط زمستان در نوار ساحلی جنوب ایران شرایط گردشگری بسیار مطلوب بوده و شاخص در وضعیتهای عالی تا بسیار خوب قرار دارد. نوآوری و اصالت: واکاوی تغییرات روند پارامترهای دما و بارش به عنوان تأثیرگذارترین مؤلفههابی اقلیمی بر گردشگری، در منطقة ساحلی جنوب ایران، محور اصلی بحث پژوهش حاضر میباشد که این روند در شرایط گرمایش جهانی و اقلیم در حال گذار اهمیت بیشتری پیدا میکند. همچنین روند شاخص TCI در مقاصد مهم گردشگری ساحلی جنوب با استفاده از روش گرافیکی شیب سن (ITA) ارزیابی گردید که بر اساس این روش تغییرات رخ داده در وضعیت اقلیم گردشگری ایستگاههای مورد نظر طی یک بازة زمانی طولانی مدت و به تفکیک طبقات شاخص مورد سنجش قرار میگیرد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آزمون من- کندال؛ تحلیل روند؛ روش گرافیکی ITA؛ سواحل دریای عمان و خلیج فارس؛ TCI | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Spatiotemporal Variation of the Tourism Climate Index in the southern coasts of Iran | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Zeynab Pahang1؛ Mohsen Hamidianpour2؛ Faeze Shoja3 | ||
1Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran | ||
2Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan | ||
3, Department of Physical Geography, University of Tehran, Teheran, Iran | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Context and Purpose: Tourism, as one of the main sectors of the global economy, is highly sensitive to climate and related changes. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Spatiotemporal Variation of Tourism Climate Index (TCI) on the southern coasts of Iran. Design/methodology/approach: Therefore, the climatic parameters of the TCI index for 14 synoptic stations located in the coastal strip during a period of 25 years (1995-2014) were received from the Iran Meteorological Organization. After that, TCI values were calculated monthly for each of the stations to determine the suitable tourism areas in different months of the year. In the following, the trends of climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation as well as the TCI index in three important tourist destinations were investigated using Mann-Kendall non-parametric tests and the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method in order to evaluate the temporal behavior of TCI. Findings: The results showed that the most suitable times for tourism on the coasts of the Oman Sea are November, December, and March, and December and January on the coasts of the Persian Gulf. December has the most favorable tourist climate conditions and all the stations located on the coastal strip at this time are in the excellent category. The results of the trend test also indicate that TCI behavior is affected by increasing temperature changes and decreasing precipitation in the studied area; Based on ITA method, TCI in Bushehr has an increasing trend during the 4 months of January, February, March, and December in the good, very good, excellent, and ideal classes. This condition is observed in Kish only in January. In Chabahar, the TCI trend slope in December in the category of good, very good, and excellent is positive and the ideal category is decreasing. Conclusion: In general, it can be said that during the period of 1995-2019, according to the spatial pattern of TCI, from late autumn to mid-winter in the coastal strip of southern Iran, tourism conditions are favorable and TCI is in excellent to very good conditions. Originality/value: In this study, for the first time, the ITA method was used to evaluate the tourism climate conditions in important southern coastal tourism destinations, and based on this method, the TCI changes in the studied stations are evaluated over a long period of time and according to the TCI classes. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Mann-Kendall test, Trend analysis, ITA graphic method, Coasts of Oman Sea and Persian Gulf, TCI | ||
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