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بررسی تأثیر توسعه اقتصاد دیجیتال کشورهای اوراسیا بر رشد بخشهای اقتصادی ایران؛ رهیافت پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی (GTAP) | ||
پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter | ||
مقاله 1، دوره 19، شماره 43، آبان 1403، صفحه 7-33 اصل مقاله (819.1 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: علمی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/mrl.2024.27051.2073 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
نسرین کرمی* 1؛ سید عبدالمجید جلایی اسفندآبادی2؛ محسن زاینده رودی3 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدهی ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ،کرمان، ایران. | ||
2استاد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران. | ||
3دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدهی ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمان، ایران. | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 09 اردیبهشت 1403، تاریخ بازنگری: 06 تیر 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 29 مرداد 1403 | ||
چکیده | ||
با توجه به نقش اقتصاد دیجیتال در رشد اقتصادی کشورهای یک منطقه، در این مطالعه به بررسی سناریوهای رشد اقتصاد دیجیتال در کشورهای اوراسیا بر رشد بخشهای اقتصادی ایران پرداخته شد. برای این منظور، از سهم تجارت فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات به تولیدناخالص داخلی بهعنوان شاخص اقتصاد دیجیتال و جهت گردآوری دادهها از نسخه10 پایگاه اطلاعاتی پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی استفاده شد. دادهها در قالب سه بخش کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات، پنج عامل تولیدی نیروی کار ماهر، نیروی کار غیرماهر، منابعطبیعی، زمین و سرمایه و هفت کشور ایران، اعضاء اوراسیا (روسیه، بلاروس، قزاقستان، قرقیزستان و ارمنستان) و سایر کشورها تجمیع شد. درنهایت، جهت تجزیهوتحلیل دادهها از مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه چندمنطقهای و نرمافزار متلب استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که کشورهای بلاروس و ایران بهترتیب از بیشترین و کمترین شاخص اقتصاد دیجیتال برخوردارند. همچنین، با توسعه اقتصاد دیجیتال در کشورهای اوراسیا، بخشهای خدمات، صنعت و کشاورزی ایران بهترتیب، از بیشترین رشد اقتصادی برخوردار خواهند شد. با توجه به نتایج، به مسئولان فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات پیشنهاد شد، علیرغم رشد خوبی که زیرساختهای تخصصی کسبوکارهای اقتصاد دیجیتال در سالیان اخیر داشتهاند، هنوز این بخش نیازمند تقویت بوده و زیرساختهایی مانند آزمایشگاههای تخصصی برای توسعه اقتصاد دیجیتال کلیدی بهنظر میرسند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
اقتصاد دیجیتال؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ کشورهای اوراسیا؛ مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه (CGE)؛ پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی (GTAP) | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Investigating the Impact of Digital Economy of Eurasian Countries on Economic Growth of Iran's Economic Sectors: Global Trade Analysis Project Approach | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Nasrin karami1؛ Seyed Abd-Al-Majid Jalai Isfandabadi2؛ Mohsen Zayanderoody3 | ||
1PhD student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran. | ||
2Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran. | ||
3Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Considering the role of digital economy in economic growth of a region, in this study, the growth scenarios of digital economy in Eurasian countries were investigated on growth of Iran's economic sectors. For this purpose, the share of ICT trade to gross domestic product (GDP) was used as digital economy indicator. In addition, in order to collect data, version10 of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database was used. The data was aggregated in form of three sectors included of agriculture, industry and services, five production factors include of skilled labor, non-skilled labor, natural resources, land and capital and seven countries including Iran, members of Eurasian Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia) and other countries. Finally, data analysis was done using multi-regional general equilibrium model and MathLab software. Results showed that the countries of Belarus and Iran have the highest and lowest digital economy, respectively. Also, with development of digital economy in Eurasian countries, economic growth of Iran's industrial, agricultural and service sectors will also increase. According to research findings the country's ICT officials are suggested that despite the good growth that specialized infrastructure of digital economy businesses have been in the country in the last few years, they still need to be developed and strengthened, and infrastructures such as specialized laboratories seem to be very key for the development of the digital economy ecosystem. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Digital economy, economic growth, Eurasian countries, computable general equilibrium (CGE) Model, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) | ||
مراجع | ||
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