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تحلیل مکانی و زمانی اقلیم گردشگری با استفاده از شاخصHCI در استان مازندران | ||
| برنامه ریزی و توسعه گردشگری | ||
| مقاله 8، دوره 14، شماره 53، تیر 1404، صفحه 197-219 اصل مقاله (1.84 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی-پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22080/jtpd.2025.28070.3937 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| همت اله رورده* 1؛ یداله یوسفی1؛ سپیده هدایت پور ساسی2 | ||
| 1دانشیار آب و هواشناسی، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آب و هواشناسی، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران. | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 29 آبان 1403، تاریخ بازنگری: 02 بهمن 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 15 بهمن 1403 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| زمینه و هدف: تغییرات اقلیمی، بهعنوان یک مسألۀ جهانی، بر صنعت گردشگری تأثیرگذار است. این پژوهش به بررسی تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر مقاصد گردشگری استان مازندران، با تمرکز بر شاخص‌های اقلیم‌سنجی و آسایش گردشگری (HCI) می‌پردازد. روش‌شناسی: از تحلیل داده‌های اقلیمی و شاخص HCI برای بررسی تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر گردشگری استفاده شده است. در بخش تغییر اقلیم نیز از CanESM2 استفاده شد. پژوهش در استان مازندران انجام شده و از داده‌های هواشناسی بازۀ زمانی 2000 تا 2024 و پیش‌بینی‌های مدل CanESM2 برای سال 2050 استفاده شده است. یافته‌ها: تغییرات اقلیمی تأثیرات متنوعی بر گردشگری مازندران دارد. مناطق غربی (رامسر، تنکابن، عباس‌آباد) با حفظ شرایط مناسب، مقاصد پرطرفداری باقی می‌مانند. درحالیکه مدلسازی نشان داد با تغییر در اقلیم مازندران مناطق شرقی و کوهستانی به دلیل کاهش HCI ممکن است با کاهش جذابیت روبهرو شوند. همچنین، افزایش سطح دریا و تغییر الگوهای بارش تهدیدی برای مناطق ساحلی است. نتیجه‌گیری و پیشنهادات: برنامه‌ریزی گردشگری در مازندران با توجه به پیش‌بینی مقادیر بالای HCI تا سال 2050 در مناطق غربی به جذب گردشگر کمک می‌کند. همچنین، پیشنهاد می‌شود از مراکز اطلاع‌رسانی هواشناسی برای آگاهی‌بخشی به گردشگران استفاده شود. مناطق با HCI پایین‌تر نیز با بهبود زیرساخت‌ها می‌توانند جذابیت بیشتری پیدا کنند. نوآوری و اصالت: این پژوهش با ترکیب داده‌های تاریخی و پیش‌بینی‌شدۀ اقلیمی (مدل CanESM2)، تأثیرات تغییرات اقلیمی را تا سال 2050 تحلیل کرده و راهکارهای مدیریتی برای صنعت گردشگری ارائه داده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| شاخص اقلیم؛ گردشگری؛ مازندران؛ HCI؛ تغییر اقلیم | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Spatio-Temporal Analysis of HCI Index in Determining Tourism Priorities of Mazandaran Province | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hematollah Roradeh1؛ Yadollah Yousefi1؛ Sepideh Hedayatpour sasi2 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Climatology, Faculty of Humanities and Social Science, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran. | ||
| 2Master of science student, Climatology, Faculty of Humanities and Social Science, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Context and Purpose: Climate and its effects on tourism, one of the major global industries, have garnered significant attention in recent decades. Tourism is highly dependent on climatic conditions, the natural environment, and changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors can have direct and indirect impacts on tourism activities and popular destinations. This study aims to examine the effects of climate on tourist destinations with a particular focus on climate indicators and tourism comfort indices. Design/methodology/approach: This research was conducted using a literature review and analysis of studies within the Mazandaran province. The Tourism Climate Index (TCI) was used to assess the effects of climate on different regions. Additionally, the impact of climate change on various tourism activities, such as coastal and winter tourism, was examined. Findings: The results indicate that climate affects different tourism regions in varying ways. Increased temperatures may reduce the attractiveness of warm destinations, while colder and mountainous regions may become new popular destinations. Furthermore, rising sea levels pose a serious threat to coastal areas and tourism destinations related to the sea. Conclusion: The study suggests that managing the effects of climate on tourism requires careful planning and the use of adaptive strategies. It is recommended that tourist destinations prepare themselves for climate impacts by considering climate indices and changing conditions, and adopt sustainable strategies to maintain their attractiveness and viability. Originality/value: This research uses climate indicators to explore the impact of climate on tourism and comprehensively analyzes how these changes affect various destinations and tourism activities. The main innovation of this study is the provision of management and adaptation strategies to combat climate threats in the tourism industry. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Climate Index, Tourism, Mazandaran, HCI, climate change | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 112 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 26 |
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